Models
CUPID LIMITEDCUPIDPersonal Products
₹18per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹18implied FY26 P/E 6.8× · EV/EBITDA 20.2×
Against CMP ₹279.95−93.4%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3184%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹14₹27
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹38₹299
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 378 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,984 |
| Enterprise value | 2,362 |
| less net debt | 118 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 2,480 |
| ÷ 134.47 crore shares | ₹18 |
84% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 19 | 21 | 22 | 24 | 27 |
| 10.50% | 18 | 19 | 20 | 22 | 24 |
| 11.00% | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | 22 |
| 11.50% | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 |
| 12.00% | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹279.95; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 14 · 18 · 23 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.65 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.52 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.48 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 184 | 358 | 465 | 605 | 786 | 1,022 | 1,328 |
| growth % | — | 94.9 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | 42 | 117 | 152 | 197 | 256 | 333 | 433 |
| margin % | 22.7 | 32.6 | 32.6 | 32.6 | 32.6 | 32.6 | 32.6 |
| less depreciation | (4) | (5) | (7) | (8) | (11) | (14) | (19) |
| EBIT | 37 | 112 | 145 | 189 | 245 | 319 | 414 |
| less tax on EBIT | (27) | (35) | (45) | (59) | (77) | (99) | |
| NOPAT | 85 | 110 | 143 | 186 | 242 | 315 | |
| add depreciation | 4 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 14 | 19 |
| less capex | (19) | (25) | (32) | (34) | (34) | (30) | (22) |
| less working-capital build | — | (42) | (55) | (71) | (92) | (120) | |
| Free cash flow to firm | (31) | — | 43 | 63 | 93 | 134 | 191 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||
| Present value | 40 | 54 | 71 | 93 | 119 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 51, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 112 | 145 | 189 | 245 | 319 | 414 |
| Interest at 8.8% on debt | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | |
| Profit before tax | 141 | 184 | 241 | 314 | 410 | |
| Profit after tax | 108 | 107 | 140 | 183 | 239 | 312 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 169 | 208 | 268 | 357 | 487 | 675 |
| Working capital | 140 | 182 | 237 | 308 | 401 | 521 |
| Net block and other assets | 244 | 270 | 295 | 318 | 334 | 338 |
| Debt | 51 | 51 | 51 | 51 | 51 | 51 |
| Equity | 451 | 558 | 698 | 881 | 1,119 | 1,431 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 71 | 94 | 123 | 161 | 210 | |
| Investing (capex) | (32) | (34) | (34) | (30) | (22) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 39 | 60 | 89 | 130 | 188 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 39 | 60 | 89 | 130 | 188 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 32.6% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹18 | (93.4)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.