₹57per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹57implied FY26 P/E 5.6× · EV/EBITDA 8.4×
Against CMP ₹139.01−58.6%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies30.9%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3173%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹46₹80
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹95₹275
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 43 |
| PV of terminal value | 114 |
| Enterprise value | 157 |
| less net debt | 17 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 174 |
| ÷ 3.03 crore shares | ₹57 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 59 | 63 | 67 | 73 | 80 |
| 10.50% | 55 | 58 | 62 | 66 | 72 |
| 11.00% | 52 | 54 | 57 | 61 | 65 |
| 11.50% | 49 | 51 | 54 | 57 | 60 |
| 12.00% | 46 | 48 | 50 | 53 | 56 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹139.01; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 49 · 57 · 67 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.73 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.64 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.01 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 176 | 222 | 236 | 237 | 238 | 240 | 241 | 242 | 243 |
| growth % | 26.9 | 25.9 | 6.4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| EBITDA | 31 | 25 | 32 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 |
| margin % | 17.8 | 11.5 | 13.4 | 7.9 | 7.9 | 7.9 | 7.9 | 7.9 | 7.9 |
| less depreciation | (8) | (8) | (5) | (3) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) |
| EBIT | 24 | 18 | 27 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 16 |
| less tax on EBIT | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | |||
| NOPAT | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | |||
| add depreciation | 8 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| less capex | (1) | (1) | (1) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) |
| less working-capital build | — | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 25 | 36 | 36 | — | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 4, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 16 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | |
| Profit before tax | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 12 |
| Dividends | (75) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 21 | 32 | 43 | 53 | 64 | 75 |
| Working capital | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 |
| Net block and other assets | 247 | 248 | 248 | 249 | 249 | 250 |
| Debt | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Equity | 212 | 224 | 235 | 246 | 258 | 269 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | |
| Investing (capex) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 0.5% | 7.9% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹57 | (58.6)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.