₹588per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹588implied FY26 P/E 17.2× · EV/EBITDA 6.4×
Against CMP ₹1,065.00−44.8%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3165%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹496₹771
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹750₹1,285
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,822 |
| PV of terminal value | 3,422 |
| Enterprise value | 5,243 |
| less net debt | 1,292 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 6,535 |
| ÷ 11.12 crore shares | ₹588 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 602 | 633 | 669 | 714 | 771 |
| 10.50% | 569 | 595 | 625 | 661 | 705 |
| 11.00% | 541 | 563 | 588 | 617 | 653 |
| 11.50% | 517 | 535 | 556 | 581 | 610 |
| 12.00% | 496 | 511 | 529 | 550 | 574 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,065.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 507 · 588 · 681 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.80 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.57 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.02 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 6,016 | 7,147 | 7,360 | 7,268 | 7,159 | 7,052 | 6,946 | 6,842 | 6,739 |
| growth % | 32.7 | 18.8 | 3.0 | (1.3) | (1.5) | (1.5) | (1.5) | (1.5) | (1.5) |
| EBITDA | 956 | 1,235 | 1,143 | 818 | 802 | 790 | 778 | 766 | 755 |
| margin % | 15.9 | 17.3 | 15.5 | 11.2 | 11.2 | 11.2 | 11.2 | 11.2 | 11.2 |
| less depreciation | (257) | (267) | (267) | (278) | (272) | (268) | (264) | (260) | (256) |
| EBIT | 700 | 969 | 876 | 539 | 530 | 522 | 514 | 506 | 499 |
| less tax on EBIT | (149) | (147) | (145) | (142) | (140) | (138) | |||
| NOPAT | 390 | 383 | 377 | 372 | 366 | 361 | |||
| add depreciation | 257 | 267 | 267 | 278 | 272 | 268 | 264 | 260 | 256 |
| less capex | (68) | (85) | (104) | (98) | (93) | (149) | (204) | (256) | (307) |
| less working-capital build | — | 21 | 21 | 21 | 20 | 20 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 486 | 641 | 686 | — | 583 | 517 | 453 | 390 | 329 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 554 | 442 | 349 | 271 | 206 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 166, dividends at 76.9% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 539 | 530 | 522 | 514 | 506 | 499 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (13) | (13) | (13) | (13) | (13) | |
| Profit before tax | 517 | 509 | 501 | 493 | 485 | |
| Profit after tax | 428 | 373 | 368 | 362 | 356 | 351 |
| Dividends | (329) | (287) | (283) | (278) | (274) | (270) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 1,458 | 1,744 | 1,969 | 2,134 | 2,240 | 2,290 |
| Working capital | 1,422 | 1,400 | 1,379 | 1,359 | 1,338 | 1,318 |
| Net block and other assets | 5,445 | 5,266 | 5,147 | 5,087 | 5,083 | 5,134 |
| Debt | 166 | 166 | 166 | 166 | 166 | 166 |
| Equity | 6,163 | 6,250 | 6,335 | 6,418 | 6,500 | 6,582 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 667 | 657 | 647 | 637 | 627 | |
| Investing (capex) | (93) | (149) | (204) | (256) | (307) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (287) | (283) | (278) | (274) | (270) | |
| Net change in cash | 287 | 225 | 165 | 107 | 50 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 574 | 508 | 443 | 381 | 320 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -1.5% | 11.2% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹588 | (44.8)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.