₹133per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹133implied FY26 P/E 12.9× · EV/EBITDA 8.6×
Against CMP ₹905.05−85.3%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3169%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹105₹190
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹265₹1,009
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 332 |
| PV of terminal value | 754 |
| Enterprise value | 1,085 |
| less net debt | (26) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,059 |
| ÷ 7.94 crore shares | ₹133 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 138 | 147 | 159 | 172 | 190 |
| 10.50% | 128 | 136 | 145 | 156 | 170 |
| 11.00% | 119 | 126 | 133 | 143 | 154 |
| 11.50% | 112 | 117 | 124 | 131 | 140 |
| 12.00% | 105 | 110 | 116 | 122 | 129 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹905.05; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 114 · 134 · 157 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.73 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.66 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,192 | 1,520 | 1,261 | 1,198 | 1,138 | 1,082 | 1,027 | 976 |
| growth % | — | 27.5 | (17.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) |
| EBITDA | 111 | 137 | 127 | 121 | 115 | 109 | 104 | 99 |
| margin % | 9.3 | 9.0 | 10.1 | 10.1 | 10.1 | 10.1 | 10.1 | 10.1 |
| less depreciation | (22) | (34) | (43) | (41) | (39) | (37) | (35) | (33) |
| EBIT | 89 | 103 | 84 | 80 | 76 | 72 | 69 | 65 |
| less tax on EBIT | (18) | (17) | (16) | (15) | (15) | (14) | ||
| NOPAT | 66 | 63 | 60 | 57 | 54 | 51 | ||
| add depreciation | 22 | 34 | 43 | 41 | 39 | 37 | 35 | 33 |
| less capex | (34) | (50) | (45) | (42) | (41) | (41) | (40) | (40) |
| less working-capital build | — | 34 | 32 | 31 | 29 | 28 | ||
| Free cash flow to firm | (104) | (112) | — | 96 | 90 | 84 | 78 | 73 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |||
| Present value | 91 | 77 | 64 | 54 | 45 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 106, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 84 | 80 | 76 | 72 | 69 | 65 |
| Interest at 15.5% on debt | (16) | (16) | (16) | (16) | (16) | |
| Profit before tax | 64 | 60 | 56 | 52 | 49 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 50 | 47 | 44 | 41 | 39 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 80 | 163 | 240 | 310 | 375 | 435 |
| Working capital | 681 | 647 | 615 | 584 | 555 | 527 |
| Net block and other assets | 881 | 882 | 885 | 889 | 895 | 901 |
| Debt | 106 | 106 | 106 | 106 | 106 | 106 |
| Equity | 1,012 | 1,062 | 1,109 | 1,154 | 1,195 | 1,233 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 125 | 118 | 112 | 105 | 99 | |
| Investing (capex) | (42) | (41) | (41) | (40) | (40) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 83 | 77 | 71 | 65 | 60 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 83 | 77 | 71 | 65 | 60 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -5% | 10.1% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹133 | (85.3)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.