₹219per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹219implied FY26 P/E 11.1× · EV/EBITDA 7.8×
Against CMP ₹190.50+15.1%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies(5.0)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3174%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹172₹313
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹185₹288
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 995 |
| PV of terminal value | 2,830 |
| Enterprise value | 3,825 |
| less net debt | 85 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 3,910 |
| ÷ 17.83 crore shares | ₹219 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 226 | 242 | 261 | 284 | 313 |
| 10.50% | 210 | 223 | 238 | 257 | 280 |
| 11.00% | 195 | 206 | 219 | 235 | 253 |
| 11.50% | 183 | 192 | 203 | 216 | 231 |
| 12.00% | 172 | 180 | 190 | 200 | 213 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹190.50; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 183 · 218 · 259 |
| Draws below the CMP | 17% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.74 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.63 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.01 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,129 | 2,402 | 2,339 | 2,356 | 2,367 | 2,379 | 2,391 | 2,403 | 2,415 |
| growth % | 20.4 | 12.8 | (2.6) | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| EBITDA | 322 | 623 | 545 | 488 | 490 | 492 | 495 | 497 | 500 |
| margin % | 15.1 | 25.9 | 23.3 | 20.7 | 20.7 | 20.7 | 20.7 | 20.7 | 20.7 |
| less depreciation | (112) | (114) | (104) | (100) | (99) | (100) | (100) | (101) | (101) |
| EBIT | 210 | 509 | 441 | 388 | 391 | 393 | 395 | 396 | 398 |
| less tax on EBIT | (101) | (101) | (102) | (102) | (103) | (103) | |||
| NOPAT | 288 | 289 | 291 | 292 | 294 | 295 | |||
| add depreciation | 112 | 114 | 104 | 100 | 99 | 100 | 100 | 101 | 101 |
| less capex | (25) | (47) | (49) | (143) | (144) | (139) | (133) | (127) | (122) |
| less working-capital build | — | (2) | (2) | (2) | (3) | (3) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 219 | 532 | 365 | — | 242 | 250 | 257 | 265 | 272 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 230 | 213 | 198 | 184 | 170 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 21, dividends at 38% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 388 | 391 | 393 | 395 | 396 | 398 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | |
| Profit before tax | 389 | 391 | 393 | 395 | 397 | |
| Profit after tax | 329 | 288 | 290 | 291 | 293 | 294 |
| Dividends | (125) | (110) | (110) | (111) | (111) | (112) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 106 | 237 | 376 | 521 | 673 | 833 |
| Working capital | 496 | 498 | 501 | 503 | 506 | 508 |
| Net block and other assets | 2,595 | 2,640 | 2,679 | 2,711 | 2,738 | 2,758 |
| Debt | 21 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 21 |
| Equity | 2,429 | 2,607 | 2,787 | 2,968 | 3,149 | 3,331 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 385 | 387 | 389 | 391 | 393 | |
| Investing (capex) | (144) | (139) | (133) | (127) | (122) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (110) | (110) | (111) | (111) | (112) | |
| Net change in cash | 131 | 138 | 145 | 152 | 159 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 241 | 248 | 256 | 263 | 271 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 0.5% | 20.7% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹219 | 15.1% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.