Models
D&H INDIA LTDBSE 517514Industrial Manufacturing
₹-31per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹(31)implied FY26 P/E (3.4)× · EV/EBITDA 0.1×
Against CMP ₹191.00−116.1%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY311199%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹(36)₹(20)
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹122₹305
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | (18) |
| PV of terminal value | 19 |
| Enterprise value | 2 |
| less net debt | (33) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | (31) |
| ÷ 1.02 crore shares | ₹(31) |
1199% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | (30) | (28) | (26) | (23) | (20) |
| 10.50% | (32) | (30) | (29) | (26) | (24) |
| 11.00% | (34) | (32) | (31) | (29) | (27) |
| 11.50% | (35) | (34) | (32) | (31) | (29) |
| 12.00% | (36) | (35) | (34) | (33) | (31) |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹191.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (120) · (30) · 35 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.81 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.58 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 139 | 158 | 209 | 253 | 306 | 370 | 448 | 542 | 655 |
| growth % | 52.9 | 13.8 | 32.5 | 20.8 | 21.0 | 21.0 | 21.0 | 21.0 | 21.0 |
| EBITDA | 9 | 10 | 15 | 18 | 22 | 27 | 32 | 39 | 47 |
| margin % | 6.7 | 6.0 | 6.9 | 7.2 | 7.2 | 7.2 | 7.2 | 7.2 | 7.2 |
| less depreciation | (2) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (8) | (9) |
| EBIT | 8 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 18 | 21 | 26 | 31 | 38 |
| less tax on EBIT | (4) | (5) | (5) | (7) | (8) | (10) | |||
| NOPAT | 11 | 13 | 16 | 19 | 23 | 28 | |||
| add depreciation | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 9 |
| less capex | (6) | (9) | (14) | (11) | (14) | (14) | (14) | (13) | (11) |
| less working-capital build | — | (12) | (14) | (17) | (20) | (25) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (0) | (10) | (16) | — | (8) | (7) | (5) | (2) | 2 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (7) | (6) | (4) | (2) | 1 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 46, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 15 | 18 | 21 | 26 | 31 | 38 |
| Interest at 10% on debt | (5) | (5) | (5) | (5) | (5) | |
| Profit before tax | 13 | 17 | 21 | 27 | 33 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 10 | 13 | 16 | 20 | 25 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 13 | 2 | (8) | (17) | (23) | (24) |
| Working capital | 55 | 66 | 80 | 97 | 117 | 142 |
| Net block and other assets | 83 | 93 | 102 | 109 | 115 | 117 |
| Debt | 46 | 46 | 46 | 46 | 46 | 46 |
| Equity | 78 | 88 | 100 | 116 | 136 | 161 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 9 | |
| Investing (capex) | (14) | (14) | (14) | (13) | (11) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (11) | (10) | (9) | (6) | (2) | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (11) | (10) | (9) | (6) | (2) | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 21% | 7.2% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹(31) | (116.1)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.