Models
D-LINK INDIA LTDDLINKINDIAIT - Hardware
₹423per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹423implied FY26 P/E 14.0× · EV/EBITDA 11.1×
Against CMP ₹435.00−2.9%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3176%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹329₹609
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹368₹549
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 347 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,122 |
| Enterprise value | 1,469 |
| less net debt | 31 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,500 |
| ÷ 3.55 crore shares | ₹423 |
76% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 436 | 468 | 506 | 552 | 609 |
| 10.50% | 403 | 429 | 460 | 497 | 543 |
| 11.00% | 375 | 397 | 423 | 453 | 489 |
| 11.50% | 350 | 369 | 391 | 416 | 446 |
| 12.00% | 329 | 345 | 363 | 385 | 409 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹435.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 341 · 418 · 511 |
| Draws below the CMP | 60% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.79 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.57 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.04 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,181 | 1,236 | 1,384 | 1,566 | 1,769 | 1,999 | 2,259 | 2,553 | 2,885 |
| growth % | 28.6 | 4.7 | 12.0 | 13.1 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 13.0 |
| EBITDA | 115 | 117 | 127 | 132 | 149 | 168 | 190 | 214 | 242 |
| margin % | 9.7 | 9.5 | 9.2 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 8.4 |
| less depreciation | (5) | (6) | (7) | (7) | (9) | (10) | (11) | (13) | (14) |
| EBIT | 110 | 111 | 120 | 125 | 140 | 158 | 178 | 202 | 228 |
| less tax on EBIT | (32) | (36) | (41) | (46) | (52) | (59) | |||
| NOPAT | 93 | 104 | 117 | 133 | 150 | 169 | |||
| add depreciation | 5 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 13 | 14 |
| less capex | (1) | (1) | (0) | (2) | (2) | (4) | (8) | (12) | (17) |
| less working-capital build | — | (36) | (40) | (46) | (52) | (58) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 5 | 120 | 90 | — | 75 | 82 | 90 | 99 | 108 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 71 | 70 | 70 | 69 | 68 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 71.5% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 125 | 140 | 158 | 178 | 202 | 228 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 140 | 158 | 178 | 202 | 228 | |
| Profit after tax | 104 | 104 | 117 | 133 | 150 | 169 |
| Dividends | (74) | (74) | (84) | (95) | (107) | (121) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 31 | 32 | 30 | 26 | 17 | 4 |
| Working capital | 275 | 311 | 351 | 397 | 449 | 507 |
| Net block and other assets | 506 | 499 | 493 | 490 | 489 | 492 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 506 | 535 | 569 | 607 | 649 | 697 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 77 | 87 | 98 | 111 | 125 | |
| Investing (capex) | (2) | (4) | (8) | (12) | (17) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (74) | (84) | (95) | (107) | (121) | |
| Net change in cash | 1 | (2) | (5) | (8) | (13) | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 75 | 82 | 90 | 99 | 108 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 13% | 8.4% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹423 | (2.9)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.