Models
DABUR INDIA LTDDABURPersonal Products
₹139per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹139implied FY26 P/E 12.5× · EV/EBITDA 10.5×
Against CMP ₹376.00−63.1%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies30.3%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3174%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹107₹202
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹368₹549
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 6,694 |
| PV of terminal value | 18,805 |
| Enterprise value | 25,500 |
| less net debt | (863) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 24,637 |
| ÷ 177.40 crore shares | ₹139 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 144 | 154 | 167 | 182 | 202 |
| 10.50% | 132 | 141 | 152 | 164 | 179 |
| 11.00% | 123 | 130 | 139 | 149 | 161 |
| 11.50% | 115 | 121 | 128 | 137 | 147 |
| 12.00% | 107 | 113 | 119 | 126 | 134 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹376.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 114 · 138 · 167 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.69 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.63 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.26 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 11,530 | 12,404 | 12,563 | 13,193 | 13,852 | 14,545 | 15,272 | 16,036 | 16,837 |
| growth % | 5.9 | 7.6 | 1.3 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| EBITDA | 2,164 | 2,400 | 2,316 | 2,437 | 2,563 | 2,691 | 2,825 | 2,967 | 3,115 |
| margin % | 18.8 | 19.4 | 18.4 | 18.5 | 18.5 | 18.5 | 18.5 | 18.5 | 18.5 |
| less depreciation | (311) | (399) | (446) | (469) | (499) | (524) | (550) | (577) | (606) |
| EBIT | 1,853 | 2,001 | 1,871 | 1,968 | 2,064 | 2,167 | 2,276 | 2,389 | 2,509 |
| less tax on EBIT | (449) | (471) | (494) | (519) | (545) | (572) | |||
| NOPAT | 1,519 | 1,593 | 1,673 | 1,757 | 1,845 | 1,937 | |||
| add depreciation | 311 | 399 | 446 | 469 | 499 | 524 | 550 | 577 | 606 |
| less capex | (509) | (564) | (570) | (420) | (443) | (506) | (574) | (648) | (727) |
| less working-capital build | — | (4) | (4) | (4) | (5) | (5) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 979 | 1,450 | 1,417 | — | 1,645 | 1,686 | 1,728 | 1,769 | 1,811 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 1,561 | 1,442 | 1,331 | 1,228 | 1,132 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 1,063, dividends at 74.9% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 1,968 | 2,064 | 2,167 | 2,276 | 2,389 | 2,509 |
| Interest at 16.2% on debt | (172) | (172) | (172) | (172) | (172) | |
| Profit before tax | 1,892 | 1,995 | 2,103 | 2,217 | 2,337 | |
| Profit after tax | 1,895 | 1,460 | 1,540 | 1,624 | 1,712 | 1,804 |
| Dividends | (1,419) | (1,094) | (1,154) | (1,216) | (1,282) | (1,351) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 199 | 617 | 1,017 | 1,396 | 1,751 | 2,077 |
| Working capital | 83 | 87 | 91 | 96 | 100 | 105 |
| Net block and other assets | 17,197 | 17,142 | 17,125 | 17,149 | 17,220 | 17,341 |
| Debt | 1,063 | 1,063 | 1,063 | 1,063 | 1,063 | 1,063 |
| Equity | 11,803 | 12,169 | 12,556 | 12,963 | 13,393 | 13,846 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 1,955 | 2,060 | 2,169 | 2,284 | 2,405 | |
| Investing (capex) | (443) | (506) | (574) | (648) | (727) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (1,094) | (1,154) | (1,216) | (1,282) | (1,351) | |
| Net change in cash | 418 | 400 | 379 | 354 | 327 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 1,512 | 1,553 | 1,595 | 1,637 | 1,678 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 5% | 18.5% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹139 | (63.1)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.