Models
DALMIA BHARAT LIMITEDDALBHARATCement & Cement Products
₹619per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹619implied FY26 P/E 12.4× · EV/EBITDA 6.0×
Against CMP ₹1,754.00−64.7%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies28.7%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3179%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹393₹1,072
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹1,605₹2,496
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 3,754 |
| PV of terminal value | 14,555 |
| Enterprise value | 18,309 |
| less net debt | (6,540) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 11,769 |
| ÷ 19.00 crore shares | ₹619 |
79% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 652 | 728 | 820 | 932 | 1,072 |
| 10.50% | 572 | 636 | 711 | 800 | 910 |
| 11.00% | 504 | 557 | 619 | 693 | 781 |
| 11.50% | 445 | 490 | 542 | 604 | 676 |
| 12.00% | 393 | 432 | 476 | 528 | 588 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,754.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 357 · 610 · 899 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.87 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.42 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.17 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 13,540 | 14,691 | 13,980 | 14,804 | 15,692 | 16,634 | 17,632 | 18,690 | 19,811 |
| growth % | 20.0 | 8.5 | (4.8) | 5.9 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 |
| EBITDA | 2,172 | 2,639 | 2,294 | 3,057 | 3,233 | 3,427 | 3,632 | 3,850 | 4,081 |
| margin % | 16.0 | 18.0 | 16.4 | 20.6 | 20.6 | 20.6 | 20.6 | 20.6 | 20.6 |
| less depreciation | (1,305) | (1,498) | (1,331) | (1,349) | (1,428) | (1,514) | (1,604) | (1,701) | (1,803) |
| EBIT | 867 | 1,141 | 963 | 1,708 | 1,805 | 1,913 | 2,028 | 2,149 | 2,278 |
| less tax on EBIT | (343) | (363) | (384) | (408) | (432) | (458) | |||
| NOPAT | 1,365 | 1,442 | 1,528 | 1,620 | 1,717 | 1,820 | |||
| add depreciation | 1,305 | 1,498 | 1,331 | 1,349 | 1,428 | 1,514 | 1,604 | 1,701 | 1,803 |
| less capex | (2,709) | (2,827) | (2,664) | (2,056) | (2,181) | (2,188) | (2,188) | (2,180) | (2,163) |
| less working-capital build | — | (46) | (49) | (52) | (55) | (58) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (457) | (192) | (547) | — | 642 | 805 | 985 | 1,183 | 1,401 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 610 | 688 | 758 | 821 | 876 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 6,752, dividends at 14.8% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 1,708 | 1,805 | 1,913 | 2,028 | 2,149 | 2,278 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (540) | (540) | (540) | (540) | (540) | |
| Profit before tax | 1,264 | 1,373 | 1,487 | 1,609 | 1,738 | |
| Profit after tax | 1,139 | 1,010 | 1,097 | 1,189 | 1,286 | 1,389 |
| Dividends | (169) | (150) | (162) | (176) | (190) | (206) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 212 | 273 | 484 | 861 | 1,423 | 2,187 |
| Working capital | 763 | 809 | 858 | 910 | 965 | 1,023 |
| Net block and other assets | 32,337 | 33,091 | 33,765 | 34,349 | 34,828 | 35,189 |
| Debt | 6,752 | 6,752 | 6,752 | 6,752 | 6,752 | 6,752 |
| Equity | 18,123 | 18,984 | 19,918 | 20,931 | 22,026 | 23,210 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 2,392 | 2,562 | 2,741 | 2,931 | 3,133 | |
| Investing (capex) | (2,181) | (2,188) | (2,188) | (2,180) | (2,163) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (150) | (162) | (176) | (190) | (206) | |
| Net change in cash | 61 | 211 | 377 | 561 | 764 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 211 | 373 | 553 | 751 | 970 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 6% | 20.6% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹619 | (64.7)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.