Models
DCM SHRIRAM LIMITEDDCMSHRIRAMDiversified
₹428per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹428implied FY26 P/E 4.6× · EV/EBITDA 6.3×
Against CMP ₹1,000.00−57.2%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3183%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹284₹717
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹945₹1,414
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,543 |
| PV of terminal value | 7,675 |
| Enterprise value | 9,218 |
| less net debt | (2,506) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 6,712 |
| ÷ 15.68 crore shares | ₹428 |
83% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 449 | 497 | 556 | 628 | 717 |
| 10.50% | 398 | 438 | 486 | 544 | 614 |
| 11.00% | 354 | 388 | 428 | 475 | 532 |
| 11.50% | 317 | 346 | 379 | 418 | 464 |
| 12.00% | 284 | 309 | 337 | 370 | 409 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,000.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 214 · 421 · 638 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.91 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.34 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.17 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 12,080 | 11,431 | 12,741 | 14,264 | 15,976 | 17,893 | 20,040 | 22,445 | 25,138 |
| growth % | 22.6 | (5.4) | 11.5 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 12.0 |
| EBITDA | 1,606 | 991 | 1,330 | 1,474 | 1,645 | 1,843 | 2,064 | 2,312 | 2,589 |
| margin % | 13.3 | 8.7 | 10.4 | 10.3 | 10.3 | 10.3 | 10.3 | 10.3 | 10.3 |
| less depreciation | (260) | (303) | (410) | (502) | (559) | (626) | (701) | (786) | (880) |
| EBIT | 1,346 | 688 | 920 | 972 | 1,086 | 1,217 | 1,363 | 1,526 | 1,709 |
| less tax on EBIT | (133) | (149) | (167) | (187) | (209) | (234) | |||
| NOPAT | 838 | 938 | 1,050 | 1,176 | 1,317 | 1,475 | |||
| add depreciation | 260 | 303 | 410 | 502 | 559 | 626 | 701 | 786 | 880 |
| less capex | (1,797) | (1,310) | (845) | (869) | (975) | (1,006) | (1,032) | (1,049) | (1,056) |
| less working-capital build | — | (356) | (399) | (447) | (500) | (560) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (501) | (516) | 283 | — | 166 | 271 | 399 | 553 | 739 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 158 | 232 | 307 | 384 | 462 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 2,812, dividends at 19.4% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 972 | 1,086 | 1,217 | 1,363 | 1,526 | 1,709 |
| Interest at 6.7% on debt | (188) | (188) | (188) | (188) | (188) | |
| Profit before tax | 898 | 1,028 | 1,174 | 1,338 | 1,521 | |
| Profit after tax | 853 | 775 | 887 | 1,013 | 1,155 | 1,313 |
| Dividends | (165) | (150) | (172) | (197) | (224) | (255) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 306 | 159 | 96 | 135 | 302 | 624 |
| Working capital | 2,970 | 3,326 | 3,725 | 4,171 | 4,672 | 5,232 |
| Net block and other assets | 10,861 | 11,276 | 11,656 | 11,987 | 12,251 | 12,426 |
| Debt | 2,812 | 2,812 | 2,812 | 2,812 | 2,812 | 2,812 |
| Equity | 7,733 | 8,357 | 9,073 | 9,889 | 10,820 | 11,878 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 978 | 1,115 | 1,268 | 1,440 | 1,632 | |
| Investing (capex) | (975) | (1,006) | (1,032) | (1,049) | (1,056) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (150) | (172) | (197) | (224) | (255) | |
| Net change in cash | (147) | (64) | 40 | 167 | 322 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 3 | 108 | 236 | 391 | 576 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 12% | 10.3% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹428 | (57.2)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.