Models
DCW LTDDCWChemicals & Petrochemicals
₹26per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹26implied FY26 P/E 10.8× · EV/EBITDA 4.8×
Against CMP ₹46.60−44.2%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies22.2%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3170%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹18₹41
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹37₹76
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 321 |
| PV of terminal value | 752 |
| Enterprise value | 1,073 |
| less net debt | (305) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 768 |
| ÷ 29.52 crore shares | ₹26 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 27 | 30 | 33 | 36 | 41 |
| 10.50% | 24 | 27 | 29 | 32 | 36 |
| 11.00% | 22 | 24 | 26 | 28 | 31 |
| 11.50% | 20 | 22 | 23 | 25 | 28 |
| 12.00% | 18 | 20 | 21 | 23 | 25 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹46.60; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 16 · 26 · 37 |
| Draws below the CMP | 99% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.89 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.37 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.16 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,634 | 1,872 | 2,000 | 2,144 | 2,294 | 2,454 | 2,626 | 2,810 | 3,006 |
| growth % | 7.3 | (28.9) | 6.9 | 7.2 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 |
| EBITDA | 475 | 174 | 193 | 222 | 236 | 253 | 270 | 289 | 310 |
| margin % | 18.0 | 9.3 | 9.7 | 10.3 | 10.3 | 10.3 | 10.3 | 10.3 | 10.3 |
| less depreciation | (90) | (94) | (100) | (104) | (110) | (118) | (126) | (135) | (144) |
| EBIT | 385 | 81 | 94 | 118 | 126 | 135 | 144 | 155 | 165 |
| less tax on EBIT | (42) | (45) | (48) | (51) | (55) | (59) | |||
| NOPAT | 76 | 81 | 87 | 93 | 100 | 107 | |||
| add depreciation | 90 | 94 | 100 | 104 | 110 | 118 | 126 | 135 | 144 |
| less capex | (86) | (94) | (76) | (93) | (99) | (114) | (132) | (152) | (173) |
| less working-capital build | — | (4) | (4) | (5) | (5) | (6) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 140 | 158 | 114 | — | 89 | 86 | 82 | 78 | 72 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 84 | 74 | 64 | 54 | 45 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 310, dividends at 12.3% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 118 | 126 | 135 | 144 | 155 | 165 |
| Interest at 16.9% on debt | (52) | (52) | (52) | (52) | (52) | |
| Profit before tax | 74 | 83 | 92 | 102 | 113 | |
| Profit after tax | 48 | 48 | 53 | 59 | 66 | 73 |
| Dividends | (6) | (6) | (7) | (7) | (8) | (9) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 5 | 54 | 100 | 141 | 177 | 207 |
| Working capital | 60 | 65 | 69 | 74 | 79 | 85 |
| Net block and other assets | 2,024 | 2,012 | 2,009 | 2,015 | 2,032 | 2,061 |
| Debt | 310 | 310 | 310 | 310 | 310 | 310 |
| Equity | 1,075 | 1,117 | 1,163 | 1,216 | 1,273 | 1,337 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 154 | 167 | 181 | 196 | 212 | |
| Investing (capex) | (99) | (114) | (132) | (152) | (173) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (6) | (7) | (7) | (8) | (9) | |
| Net change in cash | 49 | 46 | 41 | 36 | 30 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 55 | 52 | 49 | 44 | 39 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 7% | 10.3% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹26 | (44.2)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.