Models
DCX SYSTEMS LIMITEDDCXINDIAAerospace & Defense
₹36per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹36implied FY26 P/E —× · EV/EBITDA (16.6)×
Against CMP ₹167.80−78.7%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY31135%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹26₹56
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹153₹286
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | (100) |
| PV of terminal value | 385 |
| Enterprise value | 285 |
| less net debt | 114 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 399 |
| ÷ 11.14 crore shares | ₹36 |
135% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 37 | 40 | 45 | 50 | 56 |
| 10.50% | 34 | 36 | 40 | 44 | 49 |
| 11.00% | 31 | 33 | 36 | 39 | 43 |
| 11.50% | 28 | 30 | 32 | 35 | 38 |
| 12.00% | 26 | 28 | 30 | 32 | 35 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹167.80; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 31 · 36 · 42 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −1.00 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.01 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.01 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,254 | 1,424 | 1,084 | 743 | 706 | 671 | 637 | 605 | 575 |
| growth % | — | 13.6 | (23.9) | (31.4) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) |
| EBITDA | 84 | 80 | 5 | (17) | (16) | (15) | (15) | (14) | (13) |
| margin % | 6.7 | 5.6 | 0.4 | (2.3) | (2.3) | (2.3) | (2.3) | (2.3) | (2.3) |
| less depreciation | (2) | (5) | (13) | (15) | (15) | (14) | (13) | (13) | (12) |
| EBIT | 82 | 75 | (9) | (32) | (31) | (30) | (28) | (27) | (25) |
| less tax on EBIT | 59 | 56 | 54 | 51 | 48 | 46 | |||
| NOPAT | 27 | 25 | 24 | 23 | 22 | 21 | |||
| add depreciation | 2 | 5 | 13 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 12 |
| less capex | (3) | (45) | (300) | (153) | (145) | (108) | (74) | (43) | (14) |
| less working-capital build | — | 23 | 22 | 21 | 20 | 19 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (593) | (40) | 196 | — | (82) | (48) | (17) | 12 | 37 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (78) | (41) | (13) | 8 | 23 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | (32) | (31) | (30) | (28) | (27) | (25) |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | (31) | (30) | (28) | (27) | (25) | |
| Profit after tax | 120 | 25 | 24 | 23 | 22 | 21 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 114 | 32 | (16) | (32) | (21) | 16 |
| Working capital | 461 | 438 | 416 | 395 | 376 | 357 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,528 | 1,659 | 1,753 | 1,813 | 1,843 | 1,845 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 1,513 | 1,538 | 1,563 | 1,585 | 1,607 | 1,628 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 63 | 60 | 57 | 54 | 52 | |
| Investing (capex) | (145) | (108) | (74) | (43) | (14) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (82) | (48) | (17) | 12 | 37 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (82) | (48) | (17) | 12 | 37 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -5% | -2.3% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹36 | (78.7)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.