Models
DDEV PLASTIKS IND LTDDDEVPLSTIKChemicals & Petrochemicals
₹267per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹267implied FY26 P/E 13.0× · EV/EBITDA 9.7×
Against CMP ₹256.00+4.4%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies(0.2)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3181%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹203₹396
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹185₹360
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 513 |
| PV of terminal value | 2,260 |
| Enterprise value | 2,774 |
| less net debt | (9) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 2,765 |
| ÷ 10.35 crore shares | ₹267 |
81% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 276 | 298 | 324 | 356 | 396 |
| 10.50% | 254 | 272 | 293 | 319 | 350 |
| 11.00% | 234 | 249 | 267 | 288 | 313 |
| 11.50% | 217 | 230 | 245 | 263 | 283 |
| 12.00% | 203 | 214 | 227 | 241 | 258 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹256.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 207 · 264 · 330 |
| Draws below the CMP | 42% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.81 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.53 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.08 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,504 | 2,431 | 2,603 | 2,948 | 3,331 | 3,764 | 4,253 | 4,806 | 5,431 |
| growth % | — | (2.9) | 7.1 | 13.2 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 13.0 |
| EBITDA | 160 | 258 | 269 | 287 | 323 | 365 | 413 | 466 | 527 |
| margin % | 6.4 | 10.6 | 10.3 | 9.7 | 9.7 | 9.7 | 9.7 | 9.7 | 9.7 |
| less depreciation | (12) | (14) | (15) | (18) | (20) | (23) | (26) | (29) | (33) |
| EBIT | 148 | 244 | 254 | 269 | 303 | 343 | 387 | 437 | 494 |
| less tax on EBIT | (70) | (79) | (90) | (101) | (115) | (129) | |||
| NOPAT | 198 | 224 | 253 | 286 | 323 | 365 | |||
| add depreciation | 12 | 14 | 15 | 18 | 20 | 23 | 26 | 29 | 33 |
| less capex | (28) | (23) | (53) | (73) | (83) | (77) | (68) | (56) | (39) |
| less working-capital build | — | (86) | (97) | (110) | (124) | (141) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 117 | 93 | 85 | — | 74 | 101 | 133 | 171 | 218 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 70 | 86 | 102 | 119 | 136 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 52, dividends at 11.5% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 269 | 303 | 343 | 387 | 437 | 494 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | |
| Profit before tax | 299 | 338 | 383 | 433 | 490 | |
| Profit after tax | 202 | 221 | 250 | 283 | 320 | 362 |
| Dividends | (23) | (25) | (29) | (32) | (37) | (42) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 43 | 89 | 158 | 255 | 386 | 559 |
| Working capital | 662 | 748 | 846 | 956 | 1,080 | 1,221 |
| Net block and other assets | 738 | 801 | 856 | 899 | 926 | 933 |
| Debt | 52 | 52 | 52 | 52 | 52 | 52 |
| Equity | 1,013 | 1,209 | 1,430 | 1,680 | 1,963 | 2,283 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | 0 | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 154 | 175 | 198 | 224 | 254 | |
| Investing (capex) | (83) | (77) | (68) | (56) | (39) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (25) | (29) | (32) | (37) | (42) | |
| Net change in cash | 46 | 69 | 97 | 131 | 173 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 71 | 98 | 130 | 168 | 215 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 13% | 9.7% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹267 | 4.4% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.