Models
DECCAN CEMENTS LIMITEDDECCANCECement & Cement Products
₹-257per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹(257)implied FY26 P/E (61.2)× · EV/EBITDA 3.4×
Against CMP ₹572.95−144.9%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY31185%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹(371)₹(25)
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹525₹1,165
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | (257) |
| PV of terminal value | 560 |
| Enterprise value | 303 |
| less net debt | (663) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | (360) |
| ÷ 1.40 crore shares | ₹(257) |
185% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | (244) | (204) | (157) | (98) | (25) |
| 10.50% | (284) | (251) | (212) | (165) | (107) |
| 11.00% | (318) | (290) | (257) | (219) | (173) |
| 11.50% | (346) | (323) | (295) | (263) | (226) |
| 12.00% | (371) | (351) | (328) | (301) | (269) |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹572.95; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (450) · (263) · (67) |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.94 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.29 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.07 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 527 | 636 | 766 | 923 | 1,112 | 1,340 | 1,615 |
| growth % | — | 20.6 | 20.5 | 20.5 | 20.5 | 20.5 | 20.5 |
| EBITDA | 35 | 89 | 108 | 130 | 157 | 189 | 228 |
| margin % | 6.7 | 14.1 | 14.1 | 14.1 | 14.1 | 14.1 | 14.1 |
| less depreciation | (28) | (36) | (43) | (52) | (62) | (75) | (90) |
| EBIT | 7 | 54 | 65 | 78 | 95 | 114 | 137 |
| less tax on EBIT | (9) | (11) | (13) | (16) | (19) | (23) | |
| NOPAT | 45 | 54 | 66 | 79 | 95 | 115 | |
| add depreciation | 28 | 36 | 43 | 52 | 62 | 75 | 90 |
| less capex | (243) | (172) | (207) | (202) | (188) | (158) | (109) |
| less working-capital build | — | (20) | (24) | (29) | (35) | (43) | |
| Free cash flow to firm | (281) | — | (130) | (110) | (76) | (23) | 54 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||
| Present value | (123) | (94) | (58) | (16) | 34 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 753, dividends at 2.9% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 54 | 65 | 78 | 95 | 114 | 137 |
| Interest at 3.7% on debt | (28) | (28) | (28) | (28) | (28) | |
| Profit before tax | 37 | 51 | 67 | 86 | 109 | |
| Profit after tax | 29 | 31 | 42 | 56 | 72 | 91 |
| Dividends | (1) | (1) | (1) | (2) | (2) | (3) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 90 | (64) | (198) | (298) | (347) | (319) |
| Working capital | 98 | 119 | 143 | 172 | 208 | 250 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,522 | 1,686 | 1,837 | 1,962 | 2,045 | 2,063 |
| Debt | 753 | 753 | 753 | 753 | 753 | 753 |
| Equity | 751 | 781 | 822 | 876 | 946 | 1,034 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 54 | 70 | 89 | 112 | 139 | |
| Investing (capex) | (207) | (202) | (188) | (158) | (109) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (1) | (1) | (2) | (2) | (3) | |
| Net change in cash | (154) | (134) | (100) | (49) | 28 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (153) | (133) | (99) | (46) | 31 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 20.5% | 14.1% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹(257) | (144.9)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.