Models
DEEPAK FERTILIZERS & PETRDEEPAKFERTChemicals & Petrochemicals
₹549per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹549implied FY26 P/E 7.0× · EV/EBITDA 7.1×
Against CMP ₹1,325.00−58.6%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3195%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹283₹1,082
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹866₹1,681
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 560 |
| PV of terminal value | 11,453 |
| Enterprise value | 12,013 |
| less net debt | (5,088) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 6,925 |
| ÷ 12.62 crore shares | ₹549 |
95% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 585 | 675 | 784 | 916 | 1,082 |
| 10.50% | 491 | 566 | 655 | 762 | 892 |
| 11.00% | 412 | 475 | 549 | 636 | 740 |
| 11.50% | 343 | 397 | 459 | 531 | 617 |
| 12.00% | 283 | 329 | 382 | 443 | 514 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,325.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 284 · 536 · 834 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.83 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.49 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.13 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 11,301 | 8,676 | 10,274 | 11,506 | 12,887 | 14,433 | 16,165 | 18,105 | 20,278 |
| growth % | 47.5 | (23.2) | 18.4 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 12.0 |
| EBITDA | 2,165 | 1,287 | 1,925 | 1,684 | 1,881 | 2,107 | 2,360 | 2,643 | 2,961 |
| margin % | 19.2 | 14.8 | 18.7 | 14.6 | 14.6 | 14.6 | 14.6 | 14.6 | 14.6 |
| less depreciation | (239) | (334) | (403) | (424) | (477) | (534) | (598) | (670) | (750) |
| EBIT | 1,926 | 953 | 1,521 | 1,260 | 1,405 | 1,573 | 1,762 | 1,973 | 2,210 |
| less tax on EBIT | (339) | (378) | (423) | (474) | (531) | (595) | |||
| NOPAT | 921 | 1,027 | 1,150 | 1,288 | 1,443 | 1,616 | |||
| add depreciation | 239 | 334 | 403 | 424 | 477 | 534 | 598 | 670 | 750 |
| less capex | (1,209) | (885) | (1,136) | (1,570) | (1,753) | (1,632) | (1,458) | (1,218) | (900) |
| less working-capital build | — | (231) | (258) | (289) | (324) | (363) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (716) | (153) | 744 | — | (480) | (207) | 139 | 570 | 1,103 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (455) | (177) | 107 | 396 | 690 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 5,486, dividends at 17.5% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 1,260 | 1,405 | 1,573 | 1,762 | 1,973 | 2,210 |
| Interest at 7.5% on debt | (411) | (411) | (411) | (411) | (411) | |
| Profit before tax | 993 | 1,162 | 1,351 | 1,562 | 1,799 | |
| Profit after tax | 737 | 726 | 849 | 987 | 1,142 | 1,315 |
| Dividends | (129) | (127) | (149) | (173) | (200) | (230) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 397 | (510) | (1,166) | (1,501) | (1,431) | (859) |
| Working capital | 1,923 | 2,154 | 2,412 | 2,701 | 3,025 | 3,388 |
| Net block and other assets | 14,167 | 15,443 | 16,542 | 17,402 | 17,950 | 18,100 |
| Debt | 5,486 | 5,486 | 5,486 | 5,486 | 5,486 | 5,486 |
| Equity | 7,464 | 8,063 | 8,764 | 9,578 | 10,520 | 11,605 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 972 | 1,125 | 1,296 | 1,488 | 1,702 | |
| Investing (capex) | (1,753) | (1,632) | (1,458) | (1,218) | (900) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (127) | (149) | (173) | (200) | (230) | |
| Net change in cash | (907) | (656) | (335) | 69 | 572 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (780) | (507) | (162) | 269 | 802 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 12% | 14.6% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹549 | (58.6)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.