Models
DEEPAK NITRITE LTDDEEPAKNTRChemicals & Petrochemicals
₹274per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹274implied FY26 P/E 4.8× · EV/EBITDA 5.2×
Against CMP ₹1,596.00−82.8%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3195%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹171₹481
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹1,280₹1,904
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 228 |
| PV of terminal value | 4,800 |
| Enterprise value | 5,028 |
| less net debt | (1,285) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 3,743 |
| ÷ 13.64 crore shares | ₹274 |
95% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 289 | 324 | 366 | 417 | 481 |
| 10.50% | 252 | 281 | 316 | 357 | 408 |
| 11.00% | 221 | 246 | 274 | 308 | 349 |
| 11.50% | 195 | 215 | 239 | 268 | 301 |
| 12.00% | 171 | 189 | 210 | 233 | 261 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,596.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 201 · 275 · 365 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.71 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.68 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 7,972 | 7,682 | 8,282 | 7,887 | 7,493 | 7,118 | 6,762 | 6,424 | 6,103 |
| growth % | 17.2 | (3.6) | 7.8 | (4.8) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) |
| EBITDA | 1,289 | 1,203 | 1,092 | 968 | 922 | 876 | 832 | 790 | 751 |
| margin % | 16.2 | 15.7 | 13.2 | 12.3 | 12.3 | 12.3 | 12.3 | 12.3 | 12.3 |
| less depreciation | (166) | (166) | (195) | (225) | (210) | (199) | (189) | (180) | (171) |
| EBIT | 1,123 | 1,037 | 896 | 743 | 712 | 676 | 642 | 610 | 580 |
| less tax on EBIT | (203) | (194) | (185) | (175) | (167) | (158) | |||
| NOPAT | 540 | 517 | 492 | 467 | 444 | 421 | |||
| add depreciation | 166 | 166 | 195 | 225 | 210 | 199 | 189 | 180 | 171 |
| less capex | (358) | (742) | (1,122) | (1,185) | (1,124) | (861) | (621) | (403) | (205) |
| less working-capital build | — | 92 | 87 | 83 | 79 | 75 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 292 | 136 | (497) | — | (305) | (82) | 119 | 300 | 462 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (289) | (70) | 91 | 208 | 289 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 1,528, dividends at 18.6% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 743 | 712 | 676 | 642 | 610 | 580 |
| Interest at 3.4% on debt | (52) | (52) | (52) | (52) | (52) | |
| Profit before tax | 660 | 624 | 590 | 558 | 528 | |
| Profit after tax | 551 | 480 | 454 | 429 | 406 | 384 |
| Dividends | (102) | (89) | (84) | (80) | (75) | (71) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 243 | (189) | (393) | (392) | (206) | 147 |
| Working capital | 1,835 | 1,743 | 1,655 | 1,572 | 1,494 | 1,419 |
| Net block and other assets | 6,603 | 7,517 | 8,178 | 8,610 | 8,833 | 8,867 |
| Debt | 1,528 | 1,528 | 1,528 | 1,528 | 1,528 | 1,528 |
| Equity | 5,869 | 6,260 | 6,629 | 6,979 | 7,309 | 7,621 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 781 | 740 | 702 | 665 | 629 | |
| Investing (capex) | (1,124) | (861) | (621) | (403) | (205) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (89) | (84) | (80) | (75) | (71) | |
| Net change in cash | (432) | (205) | 1 | 186 | 353 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (343) | (120) | 81 | 262 | 424 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -5% | 12.3% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹274 | (82.8)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.