Models
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₹331per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹331implied FY26 P/E 14.1× · EV/EBITDA 11.7×
Against CMP ₹286.00+15.8%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies(2.8)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3180%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹254₹486
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹222₹480
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 173 |
| PV of terminal value | 697 |
| Enterprise value | 870 |
| less net debt | 14 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 884 |
| ÷ 2.67 crore shares | ₹331 |
80% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 342 | 368 | 400 | 438 | 486 |
| 10.50% | 315 | 337 | 362 | 393 | 430 |
| 11.00% | 292 | 310 | 331 | 356 | 386 |
| 11.50% | 272 | 287 | 305 | 326 | 351 |
| 12.00% | 254 | 267 | 283 | 300 | 321 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹286.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 239 · 326 · 416 |
| Draws below the CMP | 28% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.85 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.43 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.19 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 203 | 250 | 308 | 379 | 466 | 573 | 705 |
| growth % | — | 23.2 | 23.0 | 23.0 | 23.0 | 23.0 | 23.0 |
| EBITDA | 68 | 74 | 91 | 113 | 138 | 170 | 209 |
| margin % | 33.3 | 29.7 | 29.7 | 29.7 | 29.7 | 29.7 | 29.7 |
| less depreciation | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) |
| EBIT | 67 | 74 | 91 | 112 | 137 | 169 | 208 |
| less tax on EBIT | (19) | (23) | (29) | (35) | (44) | (54) | |
| NOPAT | 55 | 67 | 83 | 102 | 125 | 154 | |
| add depreciation | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| less capex | (0) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (2) |
| less working-capital build | — | (38) | (47) | (57) | (71) | (87) | |
| Free cash flow to firm | (72) | — | 29 | 36 | 44 | 55 | 67 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||
| Present value | 28 | 31 | 34 | 38 | 42 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 12, dividends at 11% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 74 | 91 | 112 | 137 | 169 | 208 |
| Interest at 13.9% on debt | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | |
| Profit before tax | 89 | 110 | 136 | 167 | 206 | |
| Profit after tax | 61 | 66 | 82 | 101 | 124 | 153 |
| Dividends | (7) | (7) | (9) | (11) | (14) | (17) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 27 | 48 | 73 | 106 | 145 | 194 |
| Working capital | 165 | 203 | 250 | 307 | 378 | 464 |
| Net block and other assets | 293 | 293 | 293 | 293 | 293 | 293 |
| Debt | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
| Equity | 459 | 518 | 591 | 680 | 791 | 927 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 29 | 36 | 44 | 55 | 68 | |
| Investing (capex) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (2) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (7) | (9) | (11) | (14) | (17) | |
| Net change in cash | 21 | 26 | 32 | 40 | 49 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 28 | 35 | 43 | 53 | 66 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 23% | 29.7% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹331 | 15.8% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.