Models
DHABRIYA POLYWOOD LTD.DHABRIYAIndustrial Products
₹339per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹339implied FY26 P/E 12.2× · EV/EBITDA 8.0×
Against CMP ₹507.95−33.3%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3184%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹238₹540
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 68 |
| PV of terminal value | 369 |
| Enterprise value | 437 |
| less net debt | (70) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 367 |
| ÷ 1.08 crore shares | ₹339 |
84% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 353 | 387 | 428 | 478 | 540 |
| 10.50% | 318 | 346 | 379 | 419 | 468 |
| 11.00% | 287 | 311 | 339 | 372 | 411 |
| 11.50% | 261 | 281 | 305 | 332 | 364 |
| 12.00% | 238 | 256 | 276 | 299 | 325 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹507.95; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 235 · 335 · 447 |
| Draws below the CMP | 97% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.85 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.48 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.04 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 171 | 212 | 235 | 264 | 298 | 335 | 377 | 424 | 477 |
| growth % | 28.1 | 23.6 | 11.1 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 12.5 |
| EBITDA | 18 | 31 | 38 | 55 | 61 | 69 | 78 | 87 | 98 |
| margin % | 10.8 | 14.7 | 16.0 | 20.6 | 20.6 | 20.6 | 20.6 | 20.6 | 20.6 |
| less depreciation | (4) | (7) | (9) | (10) | (11) | (13) | (14) | (16) | (18) |
| EBIT | 15 | 24 | 29 | 45 | 50 | 56 | 63 | 71 | 80 |
| less tax on EBIT | (12) | (13) | (15) | (16) | (18) | (21) | |||
| NOPAT | 33 | 37 | 42 | 47 | 53 | 59 | |||
| add depreciation | 4 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 16 | 18 |
| less capex | (13) | (20) | (12) | (27) | (30) | (29) | (28) | (25) | (22) |
| less working-capital build | — | (13) | (14) | (16) | (18) | (20) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 1 | 11 | 5 | — | 5 | 11 | 17 | 26 | 36 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 5 | 9 | 13 | 18 | 22 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 76, dividends at 2.5% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 45 | 50 | 56 | 63 | 71 | 80 |
| Interest at 8.3% on debt | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) | |
| Profit before tax | 44 | 50 | 57 | 65 | 74 | |
| Profit after tax | 30 | 32 | 37 | 42 | 48 | 55 |
| Dividends | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 6 | 6 | 11 | 23 | 43 | 72 |
| Working capital | 101 | 113 | 128 | 143 | 161 | 182 |
| Net block and other assets | 118 | 137 | 154 | 168 | 177 | 180 |
| Debt | 76 | 76 | 76 | 76 | 76 | 76 |
| Equity | 130 | 161 | 197 | 238 | 285 | 338 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 31 | 36 | 41 | 46 | 53 | |
| Investing (capex) | (30) | (29) | (28) | (25) | (22) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | |
| Net change in cash | (0) | 5 | 12 | 20 | 29 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 1 | 6 | 13 | 21 | 31 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 12.5% | 20.6% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹339 | (33.3)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.