Models
DHAMPUR SUGAR MILLS LTD.DHAMPURSUGAgricultural Food & other Products
₹-34per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹(34)implied FY26 P/E (3.1)× · EV/EBITDA 3.8×
Against CMP ₹163.90−120.5%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3163%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹(53)₹5
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹110₹200
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 242 |
| PV of terminal value | 416 |
| Enterprise value | 658 |
| less net debt | (874) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | (216) |
| ÷ 6.43 crore shares | ₹(34) |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | (31) | (24) | (16) | (7) | 5 |
| 10.50% | (37) | (32) | (26) | (18) | (9) |
| 11.00% | (43) | (39) | (34) | (27) | (20) |
| 11.50% | (48) | (45) | (40) | (35) | (29) |
| 12.00% | (53) | (50) | (46) | (42) | (36) |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹163.90; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (80) · (34) · 10 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.82 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.50 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.21 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,874 | 2,647 | 2,656 | 2,808 | 2,962 | 3,125 | 3,297 | 3,478 | 3,669 |
| growth % | 32.9 | (7.9) | 0.4 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 |
| EBITDA | 303 | 266 | 170 | 173 | 184 | 194 | 204 | 216 | 228 |
| margin % | 10.6 | 10.1 | 6.4 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 6.2 |
| less depreciation | (52) | (59) | (62) | (62) | (65) | (69) | (73) | (77) | (81) |
| EBIT | 251 | 208 | 108 | 111 | 118 | 125 | 132 | 139 | 147 |
| less tax on EBIT | (27) | (28) | (30) | (32) | (33) | (35) | |||
| NOPAT | 85 | 90 | 95 | 100 | 106 | 112 | |||
| add depreciation | 52 | 59 | 62 | 62 | 65 | 69 | 73 | 77 | 81 |
| less capex | (149) | (74) | (21) | (30) | (33) | (46) | (62) | (78) | (97) |
| less working-capital build | — | (45) | (47) | (50) | (53) | (55) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 234 | (126) | 180 | — | 78 | 70 | 61 | 51 | 40 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 74 | 60 | 47 | 36 | 25 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 879, dividends at 0.3% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 111 | 118 | 125 | 132 | 139 | 147 |
| Interest at 5.5% on debt | (48) | (48) | (48) | (48) | (48) | |
| Profit before tax | 70 | 77 | 84 | 91 | 98 | |
| Profit after tax | 65 | 53 | 58 | 64 | 69 | 75 |
| Dividends | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 5 | 46 | 80 | 104 | 118 | 121 |
| Working capital | 814 | 859 | 906 | 956 | 1,008 | 1,064 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,596 | 1,564 | 1,541 | 1,530 | 1,532 | 1,549 |
| Debt | 879 | 879 | 879 | 879 | 879 | 879 |
| Equity | 1,198 | 1,252 | 1,310 | 1,373 | 1,442 | 1,517 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 74 | 80 | 86 | 93 | 100 | |
| Investing (capex) | (33) | (46) | (62) | (78) | (97) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | |
| Net change in cash | 41 | 33 | 24 | 14 | 3 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 41 | 33 | 25 | 15 | 3 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 5.5% | 6.2% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹(34) | (120.5)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.