Models
DHANUKA AGRITECH LTDDHANUKAFertilizers & Agrochemicals
₹930per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹930implied FY25 P/E 14.2× · EV/EBITDA 10.1×
Against CMP ₹977.80−4.9%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3085%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹695₹1,401
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹890₹1,620
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY26–FY30 free cash flow | 628 |
| PV of terminal value | 3,561 |
| Enterprise value | 4,189 |
| less net debt | (42) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 4,147 |
| ÷ 4.46 crore shares | ₹930 |
85% of the value sits after FY30. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 963 | 1,043 | 1,139 | 1,255 | 1,401 |
| 10.50% | 881 | 947 | 1,025 | 1,119 | 1,233 |
| 11.00% | 810 | 865 | 930 | 1,007 | 1,099 |
| 11.50% | 748 | 796 | 851 | 914 | 990 |
| 12.00% | 695 | 736 | 782 | 836 | 899 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹977.80; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 705 · 919 · 1,169 |
| Draws below the CMP | 63% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.82 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.51 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.07 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,478 | 1,700 | 1,759 | 2,035 | 2,351 | 2,715 | 3,136 | 3,622 | 4,183 |
| growth % | 6.5 | 15.1 | 3.4 | 15.7 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 15.5 |
| EBITDA | 263 | 279 | 327 | 417 | 482 | 557 | 643 | 742 | 858 |
| margin % | 17.8 | 16.4 | 18.6 | 20.5 | 20.5 | 20.5 | 20.5 | 20.5 | 20.5 |
| less depreciation | (16) | (18) | (41) | (55) | (63) | (73) | (85) | (98) | (113) |
| EBIT | 247 | 261 | 287 | 361 | 418 | 483 | 558 | 645 | 745 |
| less tax on EBIT | (88) | (102) | (117) | (136) | (157) | (181) | |||
| NOPAT | 273 | 317 | 366 | 423 | 488 | 564 | |||
| add depreciation | 16 | 18 | 41 | 55 | 63 | 73 | 85 | 98 | 113 |
| less capex | (60) | (124) | (89) | (194) | (223) | (215) | (200) | (174) | (136) |
| less working-capital build | — | (111) | (129) | (149) | (172) | (198) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 44 | 12 | 45 | — | 46 | 95 | 159 | 240 | 343 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 43 | 81 | 122 | 167 | 214 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 42, dividends at 9.2% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 361 | 418 | 483 | 558 | 645 | 745 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | |
| Profit before tax | 415 | 480 | 555 | 641 | 741 | |
| Profit after tax | 297 | 314 | 363 | 420 | 485 | 561 |
| Dividends | (27) | (29) | (33) | (39) | (45) | (52) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 1 | 15 | 74 | 191 | 384 | 673 |
| Working capital | 718 | 829 | 958 | 1,106 | 1,278 | 1,476 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,082 | 1,242 | 1,384 | 1,499 | 1,575 | 1,598 |
| Debt | 42 | 42 | 42 | 42 | 42 | 42 |
| Equity | 1,403 | 1,688 | 2,018 | 2,399 | 2,840 | 3,349 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 266 | 308 | 356 | 412 | 476 | |
| Investing (capex) | (223) | (215) | (200) | (174) | (136) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (29) | (33) | (39) | (45) | (52) | |
| Net change in cash | 14 | 59 | 118 | 193 | 289 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 43 | 93 | 156 | 238 | 340 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY25 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 15.5% | 20.5% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹930 | (4.9)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.