Models
DIFFUSION ENGINEERS LTDDIFFNKGIndustrial Products
₹75per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹75implied FY26 P/E 5.1× · EV/EBITDA 3.8×
Against CMP ₹450.40−83.3%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY31118%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹56₹114
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹217₹520
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | (39) |
| PV of terminal value | 251 |
| Enterprise value | 212 |
| less net debt | 69 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 281 |
| ÷ 3.74 crore shares | ₹75 |
118% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 78 | 84 | 92 | 102 | 114 |
| 10.50% | 71 | 76 | 83 | 91 | 100 |
| 11.00% | 65 | 70 | 75 | 82 | 89 |
| 11.50% | 60 | 64 | 69 | 74 | 80 |
| 12.00% | 56 | 59 | 63 | 68 | 73 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹450.40; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 11 · 75 · 124 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.71 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.66 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.17 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 335 | 407 | 494 | 600 | 729 | 886 | 1,077 |
| growth % | — | 21.3 | 21.5 | 21.5 | 21.5 | 21.5 | 21.5 |
| EBITDA | 47 | 56 | 69 | 83 | 101 | 123 | 150 |
| margin % | 14.0 | 13.9 | 13.9 | 13.9 | 13.9 | 13.9 | 13.9 |
| less depreciation | (5) | (7) | (8) | (10) | (12) | (15) | (18) |
| EBIT | 42 | 50 | 60 | 73 | 89 | 108 | 131 |
| less tax on EBIT | (12) | (14) | (17) | (21) | (25) | (31) | |
| NOPAT | 38 | 46 | 56 | 68 | 83 | 101 | |
| add depreciation | 5 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 15 | 18 |
| less capex | (15) | (41) | (49) | (48) | (44) | (36) | (22) |
| less working-capital build | — | (33) | (41) | (49) | (60) | (73) | |
| Free cash flow to firm | (6) | — | (28) | (22) | (13) | 2 | 24 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||
| Present value | (27) | (19) | (10) | 2 | 15 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 29, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 50 | 60 | 73 | 89 | 108 | 131 |
| Interest at 8.3% on debt | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | |
| Profit before tax | 58 | 71 | 87 | 106 | 129 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 44 | 54 | 66 | 81 | 99 |
| Dividends | (6) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 98 | 68 | 43 | 29 | 29 | 52 |
| Working capital | 155 | 189 | 229 | 279 | 338 | 411 |
| Net block and other assets | 258 | 299 | 336 | 368 | 389 | 392 |
| Debt | 29 | 29 | 29 | 29 | 29 | 29 |
| Equity | 406 | 450 | 504 | 571 | 652 | 750 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 19 | 24 | 29 | 36 | 44 | |
| Investing (capex) | (49) | (48) | (44) | (36) | (22) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (30) | (24) | (14) | 0 | 22 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (30) | (24) | (14) | 0 | 22 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 21.5% | 13.9% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹75 | (83.3)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.