₹28per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹28implied FY26 P/E —× · EV/EBITDA 1.1×
Against CMP ₹88.78−68.8%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY310%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹27₹28
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹70₹201
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 293 |
| PV of terminal value | 0 |
| Enterprise value | 293 |
| less net debt | 119 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 412 |
| ÷ 14.91 crore shares | ₹28 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 28 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 28 |
| 10.50% | 28 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 28 |
| 11.00% | 28 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 28 |
| 11.50% | 28 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 28 |
| 12.00% | 27 | 27 | 27 | 27 | 27 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹88.78; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 24 · 28 · 31 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +1.00 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.05 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.01 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3,269 | 3,080 | 2,926 | 2,780 | 2,641 | 2,509 | 2,383 |
| growth % | — | (5.8) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) |
| EBITDA | 445 | 278 | 263 | 250 | 238 | 226 | 215 |
| margin % | 13.6 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 |
| less depreciation | (221) | (212) | (202) | (192) | (182) | (173) | (164) |
| EBIT | 224 | 66 | 61 | 58 | 55 | 53 | 50 |
| less tax on EBIT | (55) | (51) | (48) | (46) | (43) | (41) | |
| NOPAT | 12 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | |
| add depreciation | 221 | 212 | 202 | 192 | 182 | 173 | 164 |
| less capex | 0 | (105) | (99) | (128) | (154) | (177) | (197) |
| less working-capital build | — | 30 | 28 | 27 | 25 | 24 | |
| Free cash flow to firm | 368 | — | 143 | 102 | 64 | 31 | 0 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||
| Present value | 136 | 87 | 50 | 21 | 0 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 74, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 66 | 61 | 58 | 55 | 53 | 50 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) | |
| Profit before tax | 55 | 52 | 50 | 47 | 44 | |
| Profit after tax | (16) | 10 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 |
| Dividends | (24) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 193 | 335 | 436 | 499 | 529 | 528 |
| Working capital | 591 | 561 | 533 | 506 | 481 | 457 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,252 | 1,149 | 1,086 | 1,058 | 1,062 | 1,095 |
| Debt | 74 | 74 | 74 | 74 | 74 | 74 |
| Equity | 916 | 926 | 935 | 944 | 952 | 960 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 241 | 229 | 218 | 207 | 196 | |
| Investing (capex) | (99) | (128) | (154) | (177) | (197) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 142 | 101 | 63 | 30 | (1) | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 142 | 101 | 63 | 30 | (1) | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -5% | 9% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹28 | (68.8)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.