Models
DILIP BUILDCON LIMITEDDBLConstruction
₹799per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹799implied FY26 P/E 8.2× · EV/EBITDA 7.9×
Against CMP ₹403.15+98.3%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies(14.6)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3189%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹461₹1,477
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹382₹585
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 2,250 |
| PV of terminal value | 18,693 |
| Enterprise value | 20,943 |
| less net debt | (7,956) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 12,987 |
| ÷ 16.24 crore shares | ₹799 |
89% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 847 | 961 | 1,099 | 1,267 | 1,477 |
| 10.50% | 728 | 823 | 935 | 1,071 | 1,236 |
| 11.00% | 626 | 706 | 799 | 910 | 1,043 |
| 11.50% | 538 | 606 | 685 | 777 | 885 |
| 12.00% | 461 | 520 | 587 | 664 | 754 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹403.15; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 567 · 802 · 1,085 |
| Draws below the CMP | 1% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.72 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.67 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 10,644 | 12,012 | 11,317 | 8,984 | 8,535 | 8,108 | 7,703 | 7,317 | 6,952 |
| growth % | 11.3 | 12.9 | (5.8) | (20.6) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) |
| EBITDA | 1,335 | 1,739 | 2,440 | 2,646 | 2,518 | 2,392 | 2,272 | 2,159 | 2,051 |
| margin % | 12.5 | 14.5 | 21.6 | 29.5 | 29.5 | 29.5 | 29.5 | 29.5 | 29.5 |
| less depreciation | (398) | (379) | (346) | (298) | (282) | (268) | (254) | (241) | (229) |
| EBIT | 937 | 1,360 | 2,093 | 2,348 | 2,236 | 2,124 | 2,018 | 1,917 | 1,821 |
| less tax on EBIT | (101) | (96) | (91) | (87) | (82) | (78) | |||
| NOPAT | 2,247 | 2,140 | 2,033 | 1,931 | 1,835 | 1,743 | |||
| add depreciation | 398 | 379 | 346 | 298 | 282 | 268 | 254 | 241 | 229 |
| less capex | (3,916) | (5,554) | (4,265) | (3,238) | (3,073) | (2,269) | (1,539) | (876) | (275) |
| less working-capital build | — | 126 | 120 | 114 | 108 | 103 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (1,071) | (4,741) | (4,830) | — | (525) | 151 | 760 | 1,309 | 1,800 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (498) | 129 | 586 | 908 | 1,125 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 8,041, dividends at 1.2% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 2,348 | 2,236 | 2,124 | 2,018 | 1,917 | 1,821 |
| Interest at 16% on debt | (1,287) | (1,287) | (1,287) | (1,287) | (1,287) | |
| Profit before tax | 949 | 838 | 731 | 631 | 535 | |
| Profit after tax | 1,302 | 909 | 802 | 700 | 603 | 512 |
| Dividends | (16) | (11) | (10) | (8) | (7) | (6) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 86 | (1,681) | (2,771) | (3,250) | (3,180) | (2,618) |
| Working capital | 2,523 | 2,397 | 2,277 | 2,163 | 2,055 | 1,952 |
| Net block and other assets | 16,300 | 19,090 | 21,092 | 22,377 | 23,012 | 23,057 |
| Debt | 8,041 | 8,041 | 8,041 | 8,041 | 8,041 | 8,041 |
| Equity | 6,962 | 7,859 | 8,651 | 9,343 | 9,939 | 10,445 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 1,317 | 1,189 | 1,068 | 953 | 844 | |
| Investing (capex) | (3,073) | (2,269) | (1,539) | (876) | (275) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (11) | (10) | (8) | (7) | (6) | |
| Net change in cash | (1,767) | (1,090) | (479) | 70 | 562 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (1,756) | (1,080) | (471) | 77 | 569 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -5% | 29.5% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹799 | 98.3% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.