Models
DIXON TECHNO (INDIA) LTDDIXONConsumer Durables
₹6,944per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹6,944implied FY26 P/E 20.2× · EV/EBITDA 22.6×
Against CMP ₹13,425.00−48.3%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies44.6%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3185%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹5,221₹10,390
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹9,600₹18,471
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 6,406 |
| PV of terminal value | 35,720 |
| Enterprise value | 42,126 |
| less net debt | 300 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 42,426 |
| ÷ 6.11 crore shares | ₹6,944 |
85% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 7,186 | 7,769 | 8,468 | 9,322 | 10,390 |
| 10.50% | 6,579 | 7,064 | 7,636 | 8,322 | 9,161 |
| 11.00% | 6,061 | 6,468 | 6,944 | 7,505 | 8,180 |
| 11.50% | 5,612 | 5,959 | 6,359 | 6,826 | 7,378 |
| 12.00% | 5,221 | 5,519 | 5,860 | 6,253 | 6,712 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹13,425.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 5,057 · 6,899 · 9,306 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.77 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.42 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.42 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 12,192 | 17,691 | 38,860 | 48,873 | 61,580 | 77,590 | 97,764 | 1,23,183 | 1,55,210 |
| growth % | 14.0 | 45.1 | 119.7 | 25.8 | 26.0 | 26.0 | 26.0 | 26.0 | 26.0 |
| EBITDA | 513 | 698 | 1,968 | 1,867 | 2,340 | 2,948 | 3,715 | 4,681 | 5,898 |
| margin % | 4.2 | 3.9 | 5.1 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.8 |
| less depreciation | (115) | (162) | (281) | (393) | (493) | (621) | (782) | (985) | (1,242) |
| EBIT | 398 | 536 | 1,687 | 1,474 | 1,847 | 2,328 | 2,933 | 3,695 | 4,656 |
| less tax on EBIT | (306) | (384) | (484) | (610) | (769) | (969) | |||
| NOPAT | 1,167 | 1,463 | 1,844 | 2,323 | 2,927 | 3,688 | |||
| add depreciation | 115 | 162 | 281 | 393 | 493 | 621 | 782 | 985 | 1,242 |
| less capex | (461) | (584) | (939) | (1,068) | (1,355) | (1,466) | (1,545) | (1,564) | (1,490) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 265 | (0) | 210 | — | 601 | 998 | 1,560 | 2,348 | 3,439 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 570 | 853 | 1,202 | 1,629 | 2,150 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 468, dividends at 8.2% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 1,474 | 1,847 | 2,328 | 2,933 | 3,695 | 4,656 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (37) | (37) | (37) | (37) | (37) | |
| Profit before tax | 1,810 | 2,290 | 2,896 | 3,658 | 4,619 | |
| Profit after tax | 1,439 | 1,434 | 1,814 | 2,293 | 2,897 | 3,658 |
| Dividends | (118) | (118) | (149) | (188) | (238) | (300) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 767 | 1,221 | 2,041 | 3,383 | 5,464 | 8,574 |
| Working capital | (362) | (362) | (362) | (362) | (362) | (362) |
| Net block and other assets | 18,756 | 19,618 | 20,464 | 21,226 | 21,805 | 22,053 |
| Debt | 468 | 468 | 468 | 468 | 468 | 468 |
| Equity | 5,387 | 6,703 | 8,368 | 10,473 | 13,133 | 16,491 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 1,926 | 2,435 | 3,075 | 3,883 | 4,900 | |
| Investing (capex) | (1,355) | (1,466) | (1,545) | (1,564) | (1,490) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (118) | (149) | (188) | (238) | (300) | |
| Net change in cash | 454 | 819 | 1,343 | 2,081 | 3,110 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 571 | 968 | 1,531 | 2,318 | 3,410 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 26% | 3.8% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹6,944 | (48.3)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.