Models
DLF LIMITEDDLFRealty
₹57per share · Base Model Note
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹57implied FY26 P/E 3.2× · EV/EBITDA 7.2×
Against CMP ₹644.50−91.1%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3173%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹47₹78
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹489₹795
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 3,194 |
| PV of terminal value | 8,763 |
| Enterprise value | 11,957 |
| less net debt | 2,228 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 14,185 |
| ÷ 247.53 crore shares | ₹57 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 59 | 62 | 67 | 72 | 78 |
| 10.50% | 55 | 58 | 62 | 66 | 71 |
| 11.00% | 52 | 54 | 57 | 61 | 65 |
| 11.50% | 49 | 51 | 54 | 57 | 60 |
| 12.00% | 47 | 49 | 51 | 53 | 56 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹644.50; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 44 · 57 · 71 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.69 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.58 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.39 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 5,695 | 6,427 | 7,994 | 8,194 | 8,399 | 8,609 | 8,824 | 9,045 | 9,271 |
| growth % | (0.4) | 12.9 | 24.4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| EBITDA | 1,726 | 2,124 | 1,806 | 1,651 | 1,697 | 1,739 | 1,782 | 1,827 | 1,873 |
| margin % | 30.3 | 33.0 | 22.6 | 20.2 | 20.2 | 20.2 | 20.2 | 20.2 | 20.2 |
| less depreciation | (149) | (148) | (151) | (142) | (143) | (146) | (150) | (154) | (158) |
| EBIT | 1,577 | 1,976 | 1,656 | 1,509 | 1,554 | 1,593 | 1,632 | 1,673 | 1,715 |
| less tax on EBIT | (160) | (165) | (169) | (173) | (177) | (182) | |||
| NOPAT | 1,349 | 1,389 | 1,424 | 1,459 | 1,496 | 1,533 | |||
| add depreciation | 149 | 148 | 151 | 142 | 143 | 146 | 150 | 154 | 158 |
| less capex | (64) | (116) | (96) | (129) | (134) | (147) | (161) | (175) | (189) |
| less working-capital build | — | (596) | (611) | (626) | (642) | (658) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 2,312 | 2,423 | 5,139 | — | 801 | 812 | 823 | 833 | 844 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 761 | 694 | 634 | 578 | 528 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 45, dividends at 33.5% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 1,509 | 1,554 | 1,593 | 1,632 | 1,673 | 1,715 |
| Interest at 9.6% on debt | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | |
| Profit before tax | 1,549 | 1,588 | 1,628 | 1,669 | 1,711 | |
| Profit after tax | 4,415 | 1,385 | 1,420 | 1,456 | 1,492 | 1,529 |
| Dividends | (1,480) | (464) | (476) | (488) | (500) | (512) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 2,273 | 2,607 | 2,939 | 3,270 | 3,600 | 3,927 |
| Working capital | 23,846 | 24,442 | 25,053 | 25,679 | 26,321 | 26,979 |
| Net block and other assets | 48,756 | 48,747 | 48,748 | 48,759 | 48,780 | 48,811 |
| Debt | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 |
| Equity | 45,473 | 46,395 | 47,339 | 48,307 | 49,299 | 50,316 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 932 | 955 | 979 | 1,004 | 1,029 | |
| Investing (capex) | (134) | (147) | (161) | (175) | (189) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (464) | (476) | (488) | (500) | (512) | |
| Net change in cash | 333 | 332 | 331 | 329 | 328 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 798 | 808 | 819 | 829 | 840 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 2.5% | 20.2% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹57 | (91.1)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.