Models
DMCC SPECIALITY CHEMICALSDMCCChemicals & Petrochemicals
₹39per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹39implied FY26 P/E 2.4× · EV/EBITDA 2.9×
Against CMP ₹288.00−86.5%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3151%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹28₹61
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹191₹333
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 90 |
| PV of terminal value | 92 |
| Enterprise value | 181 |
| less net debt | (84) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 97 |
| ÷ 2.49 crore shares | ₹39 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 41 | 45 | 49 | 54 | 61 |
| 10.50% | 37 | 40 | 43 | 48 | 53 |
| 11.00% | 33 | 36 | 39 | 42 | 47 |
| 11.50% | 30 | 33 | 35 | 38 | 41 |
| 12.00% | 28 | 30 | 32 | 34 | 37 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹288.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (109) · 40 · 138 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.70 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.70 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.04 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 385 | 328 | 431 | 582 | 756 | 983 | 1,278 | 1,661 | 2,159 |
| growth % | 17.9 | (14.8) | 31.5 | 34.8 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | 34 | 36 | 57 | 63 | 82 | 107 | 139 | 181 | 235 |
| margin % | 8.8 | 11.1 | 13.2 | 10.9 | 10.9 | 10.9 | 10.9 | 10.9 | 10.9 |
| less depreciation | (18) | (16) | (17) | (16) | (20) | (27) | (34) | (45) | (58) |
| EBIT | 16 | 21 | 40 | 48 | 62 | 81 | 105 | 136 | 177 |
| less tax on EBIT | (14) | (19) | (24) | (31) | (41) | (53) | |||
| NOPAT | 33 | 43 | 56 | 73 | 95 | 124 | |||
| add depreciation | 18 | 16 | 17 | 16 | 20 | 27 | 34 | 45 | 58 |
| less capex | (22) | (19) | 0 | 0 | 0 | (8) | (21) | (40) | (70) |
| less working-capital build | — | (36) | (47) | (61) | (80) | (104) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 8 | 19 | 38 | — | 28 | 28 | 26 | 20 | 9 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 26 | 24 | 20 | 14 | 6 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 86, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 48 | 62 | 81 | 105 | 136 | 177 |
| Interest at 14.4% on debt | (12) | (12) | (12) | (12) | (12) | |
| Profit before tax | 50 | 68 | 92 | 124 | 165 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 35 | 48 | 65 | 87 | 115 |
| Dividends | (9) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 2 | 21 | 40 | 57 | 69 | 69 |
| Working capital | 121 | 158 | 205 | 266 | 346 | 449 |
| Net block and other assets | 322 | 302 | 283 | 269 | 265 | 276 |
| Debt | 86 | 86 | 86 | 86 | 86 | 86 |
| Equity | 248 | 283 | 331 | 395 | 482 | 598 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 19 | 27 | 38 | 52 | 70 | |
| Investing (capex) | 0 | (8) | (21) | (40) | (70) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 19 | 19 | 17 | 12 | 0 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 19 | 19 | 17 | 12 | 0 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 10.9% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹39 | (86.5)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.