Models
DODLA DAIRY LIMITEDDODLAFood Products
₹719per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹719implied FY26 P/E 17.7× · EV/EBITDA 14.0×
Against CMP ₹1,080.30−33.5%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies21.2%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3180%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹551₹1,053
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹964₹1,487
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 866 |
| PV of terminal value | 3,419 |
| Enterprise value | 4,285 |
| less net debt | 51 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 4,336 |
| ÷ 6.03 crore shares | ₹719 |
80% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 743 | 799 | 867 | 950 | 1,053 |
| 10.50% | 684 | 731 | 786 | 853 | 934 |
| 11.00% | 633 | 673 | 719 | 773 | 838 |
| 11.50% | 589 | 623 | 662 | 707 | 760 |
| 12.00% | 551 | 580 | 613 | 651 | 696 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,080.30; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 570 · 713 · 890 |
| Draws below the CMP | 99% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.65 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.54 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.47 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,812 | 3,125 | 3,720 | 4,125 | 4,579 | 5,083 | 5,642 | 6,262 | 6,951 |
| growth % | 25.3 | 11.1 | 19.0 | 10.9 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 |
| EBITDA | 191 | 289 | 381 | 306 | 339 | 376 | 417 | 463 | 514 |
| margin % | 6.8 | 9.2 | 10.2 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 7.4 |
| less depreciation | (61) | (70) | (75) | (82) | (92) | (102) | (113) | (125) | (139) |
| EBIT | 130 | 219 | 306 | 224 | 247 | 274 | 305 | 338 | 375 |
| less tax on EBIT | (11) | (12) | (13) | (15) | (17) | (18) | |||
| NOPAT | 213 | 235 | 261 | 290 | 322 | 357 | |||
| add depreciation | 61 | 70 | 75 | 82 | 92 | 102 | 113 | 125 | 139 |
| less capex | (108) | (107) | (110) | (162) | (179) | (179) | (178) | (174) | (167) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 52 | (107) | 410 | — | 148 | 184 | 225 | 273 | 329 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 141 | 157 | 173 | 190 | 206 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 30, dividends at 4.5% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 224 | 247 | 274 | 305 | 338 | 375 |
| Interest at 9.3% on debt | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | |
| Profit before tax | 244 | 272 | 302 | 335 | 373 | |
| Profit after tax | 267 | 233 | 258 | 287 | 319 | 354 |
| Dividends | (12) | (10) | (12) | (13) | (14) | (16) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 81 | 216 | 386 | 595 | 851 | 1,161 |
| Working capital | (19) | (19) | (19) | (19) | (19) | (19) |
| Net block and other assets | 2,034 | 2,121 | 2,199 | 2,264 | 2,312 | 2,340 |
| Debt | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 |
| Equity | 1,674 | 1,896 | 2,143 | 2,417 | 2,722 | 3,060 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 324 | 360 | 400 | 444 | 493 | |
| Investing (capex) | (179) | (179) | (178) | (174) | (167) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (10) | (12) | (13) | (14) | (16) | |
| Net change in cash | 135 | 169 | 209 | 256 | 311 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 146 | 181 | 222 | 270 | 327 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 11% | 7.4% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹719 | (33.5)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.