₹74per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹74implied FY26 P/E 3.8× · EV/EBITDA 3.5×
Against CMP ₹275.45−73.0%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3175%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹47₹129
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹221₹396
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 172 |
| PV of terminal value | 527 |
| Enterprise value | 699 |
| less net debt | (277) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 422 |
| ÷ 5.67 crore shares | ₹74 |
75% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 78 | 88 | 99 | 112 | 129 |
| 10.50% | 69 | 76 | 85 | 96 | 110 |
| 11.00% | 60 | 67 | 74 | 83 | 94 |
| 11.50% | 53 | 59 | 65 | 72 | 81 |
| 12.00% | 47 | 52 | 57 | 63 | 70 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹275.45; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (18) · 74 · 152 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.70 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.68 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.16 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,394 | 1,572 | 1,710 | 1,881 | 2,069 | 2,276 | 2,504 | 2,754 | 3,029 |
| growth % | 3.2 | 12.8 | 8.8 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 |
| EBITDA | 98 | 159 | 184 | 202 | 221 | 244 | 268 | 295 | 324 |
| margin % | 7.0 | 10.1 | 10.8 | 10.7 | 10.7 | 10.7 | 10.7 | 10.7 | 10.7 |
| less depreciation | (18) | (21) | (38) | (40) | (43) | (48) | (53) | (58) | (64) |
| EBIT | 81 | 137 | 147 | 162 | 178 | 196 | 215 | 237 | 261 |
| less tax on EBIT | (40) | (44) | (48) | (53) | (58) | (64) | |||
| NOPAT | 122 | 134 | 147 | 162 | 178 | 196 | |||
| add depreciation | 18 | 21 | 38 | 40 | 43 | 48 | 53 | 58 | 64 |
| less capex | (55) | (78) | (56) | (43) | (48) | (54) | (60) | (68) | (76) |
| less working-capital build | — | (91) | (100) | (110) | (121) | (133) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 86 | (104) | 18 | — | 39 | 42 | 45 | 48 | 51 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 37 | 36 | 34 | 33 | 32 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 277, dividends at 15.8% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 162 | 178 | 196 | 215 | 237 | 261 |
| Interest at 8.1% on debt | (22) | (22) | (22) | (22) | (22) | |
| Profit before tax | 156 | 173 | 193 | 214 | 238 | |
| Profit after tax | 107 | 117 | 130 | 145 | 161 | 179 |
| Dividends | (17) | (19) | (21) | (23) | (26) | (28) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 0 | 4 | 8 | 13 | 18 | 24 |
| Working capital | 906 | 997 | 1,097 | 1,207 | 1,327 | 1,460 |
| Net block and other assets | 638 | 642 | 648 | 656 | 666 | 678 |
| Debt | 277 | 277 | 277 | 277 | 277 | 277 |
| Equity | 954 | 1,053 | 1,163 | 1,285 | 1,421 | 1,572 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 70 | 79 | 88 | 99 | 110 | |
| Investing (capex) | (48) | (54) | (60) | (68) | (76) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (19) | (21) | (23) | (26) | (28) | |
| Net change in cash | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 22 | 25 | 28 | 31 | 34 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 10% | 10.7% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹74 | (73.0)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.