₹709per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹709implied FY26 P/E 19.8× · EV/EBITDA 10.8×
Against CMP ₹2,120.00−66.6%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3190%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹520₹1,087
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹2,024₹2,755
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 433 |
| PV of terminal value | 3,904 |
| Enterprise value | 4,337 |
| less net debt | (36) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 4,301 |
| ÷ 6.07 crore shares | ₹709 |
90% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 735 | 799 | 876 | 970 | 1,087 |
| 10.50% | 668 | 722 | 785 | 860 | 952 |
| 11.00% | 612 | 656 | 709 | 771 | 845 |
| 11.50% | 563 | 601 | 645 | 696 | 757 |
| 12.00% | 520 | 553 | 590 | 633 | 684 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹2,120.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 509 · 698 · 928 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.80 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.46 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.29 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,537 | 1,913 | 2,326 | 2,827 | 3,434 | 4,173 | 5,070 | 6,160 |
| growth % | — | 24.4 | 21.6 | 21.5 | 21.5 | 21.5 | 21.5 | 21.5 |
| EBITDA | 273 | 348 | 403 | 489 | 594 | 722 | 877 | 1,066 |
| margin % | 17.7 | 18.2 | 17.3 | 17.3 | 17.3 | 17.3 | 17.3 | 17.3 |
| less depreciation | (51) | (69) | (88) | (107) | (131) | (159) | (193) | (234) |
| EBIT | 221 | 279 | 314 | 382 | 464 | 563 | 684 | 832 |
| less tax on EBIT | (81) | (98) | (119) | (145) | (176) | (214) | ||
| NOPAT | 234 | 284 | 344 | 419 | 509 | 618 | ||
| add depreciation | 51 | 69 | 88 | 107 | 131 | 159 | 193 | 234 |
| less capex | (153) | (210) | (281) | (342) | (351) | (348) | (327) | (281) |
| less working-capital build | — | (90) | (109) | (132) | (161) | (195) | ||
| Free cash flow to firm | 29 | (27) | — | (41) | 15 | 97 | 214 | 376 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |||
| Present value | (39) | 13 | 75 | 148 | 235 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 90, dividends at 8.3% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 314 | 382 | 464 | 563 | 684 | 832 |
| Interest at 8.9% on debt | (8) | (8) | (8) | (8) | (8) | |
| Profit before tax | 374 | 456 | 555 | 676 | 824 | |
| Profit after tax | 230 | 278 | 339 | 413 | 503 | 612 |
| Dividends | (19) | (23) | (28) | (34) | (42) | (51) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 53 | (16) | (35) | 22 | 189 | 508 |
| Working capital | 416 | 505 | 614 | 746 | 907 | 1,102 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,243 | 1,477 | 1,698 | 1,887 | 2,021 | 2,068 |
| Debt | 90 | 90 | 90 | 90 | 90 | 90 |
| Equity | 1,302 | 1,557 | 1,867 | 2,245 | 2,706 | 3,267 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 295 | 360 | 439 | 535 | 651 | |
| Investing (capex) | (342) | (351) | (348) | (327) | (281) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (23) | (28) | (34) | (42) | (51) | |
| Net change in cash | (70) | (19) | 57 | 166 | 319 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (47) | 9 | 91 | 208 | 370 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 21.5% | 17.3% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹709 | (66.6)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.