₹62per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹62implied FY26 P/E 6.9× · EV/EBITDA 8.5×
Against CMP ₹85.50−27.7%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3172%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹31₹123
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹78₹117
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 208 |
| PV of terminal value | 534 |
| Enterprise value | 742 |
| less net debt | (421) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 321 |
| ÷ 5.20 crore shares | ₹62 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 66 | 77 | 89 | 104 | 123 |
| 10.50% | 56 | 64 | 74 | 86 | 101 |
| 11.00% | 46 | 53 | 62 | 72 | 84 |
| 11.50% | 38 | 44 | 51 | 60 | 69 |
| 12.00% | 31 | 36 | 42 | 49 | 57 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹85.50; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 40 · 62 · 89 |
| Draws below the CMP | 88% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.71 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.68 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 799 | 914 | 912 | 912 | 912 | 912 | 912 | 912 |
| growth % | — | 14.3 | (0.1) | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| EBITDA | 81 | 83 | 88 | 88 | 88 | 88 | 88 | 88 |
| margin % | 10.1 | 9.1 | 9.6 | 9.6 | 9.6 | 9.6 | 9.6 | 9.6 |
| less depreciation | (12) | (13) | (14) | (14) | (14) | (14) | (14) | (14) |
| EBIT | 69 | 70 | 74 | 74 | 74 | 74 | 74 | 74 |
| less tax on EBIT | (20) | (20) | (20) | (20) | (20) | (20) | ||
| NOPAT | 54 | 54 | 54 | 54 | 54 | 54 | ||
| add depreciation | 12 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 |
| less capex | (21) | (27) | (13) | (13) | (14) | (15) | (16) | (16) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Free cash flow to firm | 50 | (27) | — | 55 | 54 | 53 | 52 | 51 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |||
| Present value | 52 | 46 | 41 | 36 | 32 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 425, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 74 | 74 | 74 | 74 | 74 | 74 |
| Interest at 7.5% on debt | (32) | (32) | (32) | (32) | (32) | |
| Profit before tax | 42 | 42 | 42 | 42 | 42 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 31 | 31 | 31 | 31 | 31 |
| Dividends | (1) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 4 | 36 | 67 | 97 | 125 | 154 |
| Working capital | 562 | 562 | 562 | 562 | 562 | 562 |
| Net block and other assets | 287 | 286 | 286 | 287 | 288 | 291 |
| Debt | 425 | 425 | 425 | 425 | 425 | 425 |
| Equity | 277 | 308 | 338 | 369 | 400 | 431 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 44 | 44 | 44 | 44 | 44 | |
| Investing (capex) | (13) | (14) | (15) | (16) | (16) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 32 | 31 | 30 | 29 | 28 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 32 | 31 | 30 | 29 | 28 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 0% | 9.6% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹62 | (27.7)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.