Models
DR. AGARWAL'S EYE HOSP LDRAGARWQHealthcare Services
₹3,685per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹3,685implied FY26 P/E 25.0× · EV/EBITDA 12.8×
Against CMP ₹5,325.00−30.8%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies27.8%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3185%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹2,727₹5,601
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹4,600₹6,060
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 285 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,570 |
| Enterprise value | 1,855 |
| less net debt | (75) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,780 |
| ÷ 0.48 crore shares | ₹3,685 |
85% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 3,820 | 4,143 | 4,532 | 5,007 | 5,601 |
| 10.50% | 3,482 | 3,751 | 4,069 | 4,451 | 4,917 |
| 11.00% | 3,194 | 3,420 | 3,685 | 3,997 | 4,372 |
| 11.50% | 2,945 | 3,137 | 3,360 | 3,619 | 3,926 |
| 12.00% | 2,727 | 2,893 | 3,082 | 3,301 | 3,555 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹5,325.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 2,703 · 3,652 · 4,876 |
| Draws below the CMP | 96% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.61 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.60 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.45 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 268 | 319 | 397 | 471 | 558 | 661 | 784 | 928 | 1,100 |
| growth % | 33.1 | 19.2 | 24.4 | 18.6 | 18.5 | 18.5 | 18.5 | 18.5 | 18.5 |
| EBITDA | 75 | 91 | 119 | 145 | 172 | 204 | 242 | 287 | 340 |
| margin % | 27.9 | 28.5 | 29.8 | 30.9 | 30.9 | 30.9 | 30.9 | 30.9 | 30.9 |
| less depreciation | (20) | (27) | (39) | (46) | (54) | (64) | (76) | (90) | (107) |
| EBIT | 55 | 64 | 79 | 100 | 118 | 140 | 166 | 197 | 233 |
| less tax on EBIT | (25) | (30) | (35) | (42) | (49) | (59) | |||
| NOPAT | 75 | 89 | 105 | 124 | 147 | 175 | |||
| add depreciation | 20 | 27 | 39 | 46 | 54 | 64 | 76 | 90 | 107 |
| less capex | (71) | (71) | (101) | (98) | (117) | (123) | (127) | (130) | (128) |
| less working-capital build | — | (1) | (1) | (2) | (2) | (2) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (1) | 18 | (7) | — | 25 | 45 | 71 | 106 | 151 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 24 | 38 | 55 | 74 | 94 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 82, dividends at 4.4% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 100 | 118 | 140 | 166 | 197 | 233 |
| Interest at 13.3% on debt | (11) | (11) | (11) | (11) | (11) | |
| Profit before tax | 107 | 129 | 155 | 186 | 222 | |
| Profit after tax | 70 | 80 | 97 | 116 | 139 | 167 |
| Dividends | (3) | (4) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 7 | 20 | 52 | 110 | 202 | 338 |
| Working capital | 6 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 14 |
| Net block and other assets | 754 | 816 | 875 | 927 | 966 | 987 |
| Debt | 82 | 82 | 82 | 82 | 82 | 82 |
| Equity | 346 | 423 | 516 | 627 | 760 | 919 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | 0 | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 133 | 160 | 191 | 227 | 271 | |
| Investing (capex) | (117) | (123) | (127) | (130) | (128) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (4) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | |
| Net change in cash | 13 | 32 | 58 | 92 | 136 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 17 | 37 | 63 | 98 | 143 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 18.5% | 30.9% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹3,685 | (30.8)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.