Models
DR AGARWALS HEALTH CARE LAGARWALEYEHealthcare Services
₹121per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹121implied FY26 P/E 25.9× · EV/EBITDA 6.9×
Against CMP ₹506.10−76.0%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3187%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹90₹185
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹401₹568
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 500 |
| PV of terminal value | 3,414 |
| Enterprise value | 3,914 |
| less net debt | (67) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 3,847 |
| ÷ 31.70 crore shares | ₹121 |
87% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 126 | 137 | 149 | 165 | 185 |
| 10.50% | 115 | 124 | 134 | 147 | 162 |
| 11.00% | 105 | 113 | 121 | 132 | 144 |
| 11.50% | 97 | 103 | 111 | 119 | 129 |
| 12.00% | 90 | 95 | 101 | 109 | 117 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹506.10; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 75 · 119 · 174 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.83 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.40 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.31 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,711 | 2,080 | 2,527 | 3,071 | 3,731 | 4,533 | 5,508 |
| growth % | — | 21.6 | 21.5 | 21.5 | 21.5 | 21.5 | 21.5 |
| EBITDA | 453 | 571 | 692 | 841 | 1,022 | 1,242 | 1,509 |
| margin % | 26.5 | 27.4 | 27.4 | 27.4 | 27.4 | 27.4 | 27.4 |
| less depreciation | (231) | (276) | (336) | (408) | (496) | (603) | (733) |
| EBIT | 223 | 295 | 356 | 433 | 526 | 639 | 777 |
| less tax on EBIT | (95) | (115) | (140) | (170) | (207) | (252) | |
| NOPAT | 199 | 241 | 293 | 356 | 432 | 525 | |
| add depreciation | 231 | 276 | 336 | 408 | 496 | 603 | 733 |
| less capex | (309) | (448) | (543) | (618) | (699) | (786) | (879) |
| less working-capital build | — | (23) | (28) | (34) | (41) | (50) | |
| Free cash flow to firm | 52 | — | 11 | 56 | 119 | 208 | 329 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||
| Present value | 10 | 48 | 92 | 144 | 206 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 157, dividends at 0.8% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 295 | 356 | 433 | 526 | 639 | 777 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (13) | (13) | (13) | (13) | (13) | |
| Profit before tax | 344 | 420 | 513 | 627 | 764 | |
| Profit after tax | 133 | 232 | 284 | 347 | 424 | 516 |
| Dividends | (1) | (2) | (2) | (3) | (3) | (4) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 91 | 91 | 136 | 244 | 440 | 756 |
| Working capital | 105 | 128 | 156 | 190 | 231 | 280 |
| Net block and other assets | 3,746 | 3,953 | 4,162 | 4,365 | 4,548 | 4,695 |
| Debt | 157 | 157 | 157 | 157 | 157 | 157 |
| Equity | 2,120 | 2,350 | 2,632 | 2,976 | 3,397 | 3,909 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 546 | 665 | 810 | 986 | 1,199 | |
| Investing (capex) | (543) | (618) | (699) | (786) | (879) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (2) | (2) | (3) | (3) | (4) | |
| Net change in cash | 0 | 45 | 108 | 196 | 316 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 2 | 47 | 111 | 199 | 320 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 21.5% | 27.4% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹121 | (76.0)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.