Models
DREDGING CORP OF INDIADREDGECORPEngineering Services
₹-39per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹(39)implied FY26 P/E (2.2)× · EV/EBITDA 3.4×
Against CMP ₹1,043.80−103.8%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3134%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹(71)₹23
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹538₹1,286
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 551 |
| PV of terminal value | 285 |
| Enterprise value | 835 |
| less net debt | (945) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | (110) |
| ÷ 2.80 crore shares | ₹(39) |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | (33) | (22) | (10) | 5 | 23 |
| 10.50% | (44) | (36) | (26) | (14) | 1 |
| 11.00% | (54) | (47) | (39) | (29) | (18) |
| 11.50% | (63) | (57) | (50) | (42) | (33) |
| 12.00% | (71) | (66) | (60) | (53) | (46) |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,043.80; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (164) · (41) · 79 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.98 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.12 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.07 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,165 | 946 | 1,142 | 1,208 | 1,281 | 1,358 | 1,439 | 1,525 | 1,617 |
| growth % | 45.8 | (18.8) | 20.8 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 |
| EBITDA | 175 | 204 | 158 | 248 | 263 | 278 | 295 | 313 | 331 |
| margin % | 15.0 | 21.5 | 13.8 | 20.5 | 20.5 | 20.5 | 20.5 | 20.5 | 20.5 |
| less depreciation | (136) | (141) | (152) | (158) | (168) | (178) | (189) | (200) | (212) |
| EBIT | 39 | 63 | 6 | 90 | 95 | 100 | 106 | 113 | 120 |
| less tax on EBIT | (25) | (26) | (28) | (29) | (31) | (33) | |||
| NOPAT | 65 | 69 | 73 | 77 | 82 | 87 | |||
| add depreciation | 136 | 141 | 152 | 158 | 168 | 178 | 189 | 200 | 212 |
| less capex | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (53) | (113) | (180) | (254) |
| less working-capital build | — | (13) | (14) | (15) | (16) | (17) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 140 | 191 | 112 | — | 223 | 183 | 137 | 86 | 27 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 212 | 157 | 106 | 60 | 17 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 1,087, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 90 | 95 | 100 | 106 | 113 | 120 |
| Interest at 8.9% on debt | (97) | (97) | (97) | (97) | (97) | |
| Profit before tax | (2) | 4 | 10 | 16 | 23 | |
| Profit after tax | 5 | (1) | 3 | 7 | 12 | 17 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 143 | 296 | 409 | 477 | 492 | 450 |
| Working capital | 221 | 234 | 248 | 263 | 279 | 296 |
| Net block and other assets | 2,702 | 2,534 | 2,410 | 2,334 | 2,314 | 2,357 |
| Debt | 1,087 | 1,087 | 1,087 | 1,087 | 1,087 | 1,087 |
| Equity | 1,230 | 1,229 | 1,232 | 1,239 | 1,250 | 1,267 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | 0 | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 153 | 166 | 181 | 196 | 212 | |
| Investing (capex) | 0 | (53) | (113) | (180) | (254) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 153 | 113 | 68 | 16 | (43) | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 153 | 113 | 68 | 16 | (43) | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 6% | 20.5% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹(39) | (103.8)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.