ECO RECYCLING LTD. — valuation model

ECO RECYCLING LTD.ECORECOOther Utilities

₹201per share · Base Model Note

Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.

Scenario

Value per share, your model₹201implied FY26 P/E 16.7× · EV/EBITDA 13.1×

Against CMP ₹440.50−54.4%close of 2026-09-10

Growth the CMP implies40.1%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs

Value after FY3176%share of enterprise value in the terminal

This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.

Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP

DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid

₹157₹288

From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore

PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow	91
PV of terminal value	286
Enterprise value	376
less net debt	11
less non-controlling interest	0
add non-operating investments	0
Equity value	387
÷ 1.93 crore shares	₹201

76% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.

Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore

Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm

Sensitivity · ₹ per share

Down Across

WACC ↓terminal growth →	4.0%	4.5%	5.0%	5.5%	6.0%
10.00%	207	222	240	261	288
10.50%	192	204	218	236	257
11.00%	178	189	201	215	232
11.50%	167	176	186	198	212
12.00%	157	164	173	183	195

The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹440.50; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.

Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together

10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share	168 · 200 · 239
Draws below the CMP	100%
Rank correlation with discount rate	−0.65
Rank correlation with ebitda margin	+0.63
Rank correlation with revenue growth	+0.35

Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.

Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore

History Forward

₹ crore	FY23	FY24	FY25	FY26	FY27	FY28	FY29	FY30	FY31
Revenue	18	28	44	48	53	58	63	69	76
growth %	16.0	57.9	56.9	9.6	9.5	9.5	9.5	9.5	9.5
EBITDA	4	16	31	29	31	34	38	41	45
margin %	22.0	58.7	70.5	59.6	59.6	59.6	59.6	59.6	59.6
less depreciation	(1)	(1)	(1)	(2)	(2)	(2)	(2)	(2)	(3)
EBIT	3	16	30	27	30	33	36	39	43
less tax on EBIT				(7)	(8)	(9)	(9)	(10)	(11)
NOPAT				20	22	24	26	29	31
add depreciation	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	2	3
less capex	(21)	(2)	(20)	(1)	(1)	(2)	(2)	(2)	(3)
less working-capital build				—	(2)	(3)	(3)	(3)	(3)
Free cash flow to firm	(5)	(5)	(4)	—	20	22	24	25	28
Discount factor					0.949	0.855	0.770	0.694	0.625
Present value					19	19	18	18	17

History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.

The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 2, dividends at 0% of profit

₹ crore	FY26	FY27	FY28	FY29	FY30	FY31
Income statement
EBIT	27	30	33	36	39	43
Interest at 8% on debt		(0)	(0)	(0)	(0)	(0)
Profit before tax		30	32	35	39	43
Profit after tax	23	22	24	26	29	31
Dividends	0	0	0	0	0	0
Balance sheet, year end
Cash	13	33	55	78	104	131
Working capital	25	28	30	33	36	40
Net block and other assets	96	95	95	95	95	96
Debt	2	2	2	2	2	2
Equity	112	134	158	184	212	244
Balance check	0	0	(0)	(0)	0	0
Cash flow
From operations		21	23	25	28	30
Investing (capex)		(1)	(2)	(2)	(2)	(3)
Financing (dividends)		0	0	0	0	0
Net change in cash		20	22	23	25	27
Free cash flow to equity		20	22	23	25	27

Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.

Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share

Scenario	Template	Growth	Margin	Rate	Terminal	₹ / share	vs CMP
Base · editing	DCF	9.5%	59.6%	11.00%	5%	₹201	(54.4)%

A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.