Models
EFC (I) LIMITEDEFCILCommercial Services & Supplies
₹682per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹682implied FY26 P/E 33.7× · EV/EBITDA 22.2×
Against CMP ₹185.05+268.4%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies(5.7)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3177%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹521₹1,003
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹171₹336
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 2,338 |
| PV of terminal value | 8,044 |
| Enterprise value | 10,382 |
| less net debt | (297) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 10,085 |
| ÷ 14.79 crore shares | ₹682 |
77% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 705 | 759 | 824 | 904 | 1,003 |
| 10.50% | 648 | 693 | 746 | 810 | 888 |
| 11.00% | 600 | 637 | 682 | 734 | 797 |
| 11.50% | 557 | 590 | 627 | 670 | 722 |
| 12.00% | 521 | 548 | 580 | 617 | 659 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹185.05; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 493 · 675 · 921 |
| Draws below the CMP | 0% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.74 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.50 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.39 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 103 | 419 | 657 | 1,037 | 1,348 | 1,752 | 2,278 | 2,961 | 3,849 |
| growth % | — | 306.4 | 56.6 | 57.9 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | 62 | 183 | 328 | 468 | 609 | 792 | 1,029 | 1,338 | 1,740 |
| margin % | 60.0 | 43.5 | 49.9 | 45.2 | 45.2 | 45.2 | 45.2 | 45.2 | 45.2 |
| less depreciation | (41) | (76) | (100) | (120) | (156) | (203) | (264) | (343) | (446) |
| EBIT | 21 | 107 | 228 | 348 | 453 | 589 | 765 | 995 | 1,293 |
| less tax on EBIT | (84) | (109) | (141) | (184) | (239) | (310) | |||
| NOPAT | 264 | 344 | 447 | 582 | 756 | 983 | |||
| add depreciation | 41 | 76 | 100 | 120 | 156 | 203 | 264 | 343 | 446 |
| less capex | — | (122) | (143) | 0 | 0 | (61) | (159) | (309) | (536) |
| less working-capital build | — | (42) | (54) | (70) | (92) | (119) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | — | (106) | (9) | — | 459 | 535 | 617 | 699 | 775 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 435 | 458 | 475 | 485 | 484 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 308, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 348 | 453 | 589 | 765 | 995 | 1,293 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (25) | (25) | (25) | (25) | (25) | |
| Profit before tax | 428 | 564 | 741 | 970 | 1,269 | |
| Profit after tax | 232 | 325 | 429 | 563 | 737 | 964 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 10 | 451 | 967 | 1,566 | 2,246 | 3,002 |
| Working capital | 139 | 181 | 235 | 305 | 397 | 516 |
| Net block and other assets | 2,525 | 2,369 | 2,227 | 2,121 | 2,087 | 2,176 |
| Debt | 308 | 308 | 308 | 308 | 308 | 308 |
| Equity | 814 | 1,139 | 1,568 | 2,131 | 2,868 | 3,832 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 440 | 578 | 757 | 989 | 1,292 | |
| Investing (capex) | 0 | (61) | (159) | (309) | (536) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 440 | 517 | 598 | 680 | 756 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 440 | 517 | 598 | 680 | 756 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 45.2% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹682 | 268.4% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.