Models
EICHER MOTORS LTDEICHERMOTAutomobiles
₹4,784per share · Base Model Note
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹4,784implied FY26 P/E 22.7× · EV/EBITDA 22.9×
Against CMP ₹7,530.00−36.5%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies36.5%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3181%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹3,640₹7,070
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹6,442₹8,230
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 25,116 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,06,282 |
| Enterprise value | 1,31,397 |
| less net debt | (85) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,31,312 |
| ÷ 27.45 crore shares | ₹4,784 |
81% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 4,948 | 5,333 | 5,796 | 6,362 | 7,070 |
| 10.50% | 4,544 | 4,865 | 5,244 | 5,698 | 6,254 |
| 11.00% | 4,199 | 4,469 | 4,784 | 5,156 | 5,602 |
| 11.50% | 3,900 | 4,130 | 4,395 | 4,704 | 5,070 |
| 12.00% | 3,640 | 3,837 | 4,063 | 4,323 | 4,627 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹7,530.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 3,582 · 4,751 · 6,282 |
| Draws below the CMP | 98% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.77 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.44 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.40 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 14,442 | 16,536 | 18,870 | 23,408 | 29,025 | 35,991 | 44,629 | 55,340 | 68,622 |
| growth % | 40.2 | 14.5 | 14.1 | 24.0 | 24.0 | 24.0 | 24.0 | 24.0 | 24.0 |
| EBITDA | 3,444 | 4,327 | 4,712 | 5,730 | 7,111 | 8,818 | 10,934 | 13,558 | 16,812 |
| margin % | 23.8 | 26.2 | 25.0 | 24.5 | 24.5 | 24.5 | 24.5 | 24.5 | 24.5 |
| less depreciation | (526) | (598) | (729) | (840) | (1,045) | (1,296) | (1,607) | (1,992) | (2,470) |
| EBIT | 2,917 | 3,729 | 3,983 | 4,889 | 6,066 | 7,522 | 9,328 | 11,566 | 14,342 |
| less tax on EBIT | (1,232) | (1,529) | (1,896) | (2,351) | (2,915) | (3,614) | |||
| NOPAT | 3,657 | 4,538 | 5,627 | 6,977 | 8,651 | 10,728 | |||
| add depreciation | 526 | 598 | 729 | 840 | 1,045 | 1,296 | 1,607 | 1,992 | 2,470 |
| less capex | (682) | (819) | (1,039) | (1,275) | (1,567) | (1,846) | (2,169) | (2,540) | (2,964) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 2,165 | 2,923 | 2,941 | — | 4,015 | 5,076 | 6,415 | 8,104 | 10,234 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 3,811 | 4,340 | 4,942 | 5,624 | 6,399 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 319, dividends at 34.8% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 4,889 | 6,066 | 7,522 | 9,328 | 11,566 | 14,342 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (26) | (26) | (26) | (26) | (26) | |
| Profit before tax | 6,041 | 7,497 | 9,302 | 11,541 | 14,317 | |
| Profit after tax | 5,515 | 4,519 | 5,608 | 6,958 | 8,632 | 10,709 |
| Dividends | (1,920) | (1,572) | (1,951) | (2,421) | (3,004) | (3,727) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 234 | 2,658 | 5,763 | 9,738 | 14,818 | 21,306 |
| Working capital | (417) | (417) | (417) | (417) | (417) | (417) |
| Net block and other assets | 32,346 | 32,869 | 33,419 | 33,982 | 34,529 | 35,024 |
| Debt | 319 | 319 | 319 | 319 | 319 | 319 |
| Equity | 25,100 | 28,046 | 31,702 | 36,239 | 41,867 | 48,849 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 5,563 | 6,903 | 8,565 | 10,625 | 13,179 | |
| Investing (capex) | (1,567) | (1,846) | (2,169) | (2,540) | (2,964) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (1,572) | (1,951) | (2,421) | (3,004) | (3,727) | |
| Net change in cash | 2,424 | 3,105 | 3,974 | 5,080 | 6,488 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 3,996 | 5,057 | 6,396 | 8,085 | 10,215 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 24% | 24.5% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹4,784 | (36.5)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.