Models
ELECON ENG. CO. LTDELECONElectrical Equipment
₹202per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹202implied FY26 P/E 19.2× · EV/EBITDA 8.7×
Against CMP ₹423.00−52.2%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3175%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹159₹289
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹352₹635
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,094 |
| PV of terminal value | 3,277 |
| Enterprise value | 4,371 |
| less net debt | 169 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 4,540 |
| ÷ 22.44 crore shares | ₹202 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 209 | 223 | 241 | 262 | 289 |
| 10.50% | 193 | 205 | 220 | 237 | 258 |
| 11.00% | 180 | 190 | 202 | 216 | 233 |
| 11.50% | 169 | 178 | 188 | 199 | 213 |
| 12.00% | 159 | 166 | 175 | 185 | 196 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹423.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 166 · 200 · 243 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.78 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.57 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.09 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,530 | 1,937 | 2,227 | 2,366 | 2,508 | 2,658 | 2,818 | 2,987 | 3,166 |
| growth % | 27.1 | 26.7 | 14.9 | 6.2 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 |
| EBITDA | 339 | 474 | 543 | 502 | 532 | 564 | 597 | 633 | 671 |
| margin % | 22.2 | 24.5 | 24.4 | 21.2 | 21.2 | 21.2 | 21.2 | 21.2 | 21.2 |
| less depreciation | (49) | (51) | (61) | (104) | (110) | (117) | (124) | (131) | (139) |
| EBIT | 290 | 424 | 482 | 398 | 421 | 447 | 473 | 502 | 532 |
| less tax on EBIT | (99) | (105) | (112) | (118) | (125) | (133) | |||
| NOPAT | 298 | 316 | 335 | 355 | 376 | 399 | |||
| add depreciation | 49 | 51 | 61 | 104 | 110 | 117 | 124 | 131 | 139 |
| less capex | (47) | (31) | (66) | (120) | (128) | (137) | (146) | (156) | (167) |
| less working-capital build | — | (44) | (47) | (49) | (52) | (56) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 263 | 333 | 366 | — | 254 | 269 | 283 | 299 | 316 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 242 | 230 | 218 | 208 | 197 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 398 | 421 | 447 | 473 | 502 | 532 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 421 | 447 | 473 | 502 | 532 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 316 | 335 | 355 | 376 | 399 |
| Dividends | (45) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 169 | 424 | 692 | 976 | 1,275 | 1,590 |
| Working capital | 733 | 777 | 824 | 873 | 926 | 981 |
| Net block and other assets | 2,331 | 2,349 | 2,369 | 2,391 | 2,416 | 2,444 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 2,306 | 2,622 | 2,957 | 3,312 | 3,688 | 4,087 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 382 | 405 | 430 | 455 | 483 | |
| Investing (capex) | (128) | (137) | (146) | (156) | (167) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 254 | 269 | 283 | 299 | 316 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 254 | 269 | 283 | 299 | 316 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 6% | 21.2% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹202 | (52.2)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.