Models
ELECTRONICS MART IND LTDEMILRetailing
₹44per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹44implied FY26 P/E 8.3× · EV/EBITDA 5.7×
Against CMP ₹189.00−76.5%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3170%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹31₹72
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹85₹197
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 777 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,773 |
| Enterprise value | 2,550 |
| less net debt | (841) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,709 |
| ÷ 38.47 crore shares | ₹44 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 46 | 51 | 57 | 63 | 72 |
| 10.50% | 42 | 45 | 50 | 55 | 62 |
| 11.00% | 37 | 41 | 44 | 49 | 54 |
| 11.50% | 34 | 37 | 40 | 43 | 48 |
| 12.00% | 31 | 33 | 36 | 39 | 42 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹189.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 29 · 44 · 61 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.87 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.43 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.11 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 5,446 | 6,285 | 6,965 | 7,183 | 7,399 | 7,621 | 7,849 | 8,085 | 8,327 |
| growth % | — | 15.4 | 10.8 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 |
| EBITDA | 336 | 449 | 451 | 445 | 459 | 472 | 487 | 501 | 516 |
| margin % | 6.2 | 7.2 | 6.5 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 6.2 |
| less depreciation | (85) | (106) | (127) | (156) | (163) | (168) | (173) | (178) | (183) |
| EBIT | 251 | 344 | 324 | 289 | 296 | 305 | 314 | 323 | 333 |
| less tax on EBIT | (73) | (75) | (77) | (79) | (82) | (84) | |||
| NOPAT | 216 | 221 | 228 | 235 | 242 | 249 | |||
| add depreciation | 85 | 106 | 127 | 156 | 163 | 168 | 173 | 178 | 183 |
| less capex | (244) | (162) | (324) | (124) | (126) | (147) | (170) | (194) | (220) |
| less working-capital build | — | (37) | (38) | (39) | (40) | (41) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (238) | (2) | (148) | — | 221 | 210 | 198 | 185 | 171 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 210 | 180 | 152 | 128 | 107 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 891, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 289 | 296 | 305 | 314 | 323 | 333 |
| Interest at 16.4% on debt | (146) | (146) | (146) | (146) | (146) | |
| Profit before tax | 150 | 159 | 168 | 177 | 187 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 112 | 119 | 125 | 132 | 140 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 50 | 162 | 263 | 351 | 427 | 488 |
| Working capital | 1,230 | 1,267 | 1,305 | 1,344 | 1,384 | 1,426 |
| Net block and other assets | 2,517 | 2,480 | 2,460 | 2,458 | 2,474 | 2,511 |
| Debt | 891 | 891 | 891 | 891 | 891 | 891 |
| Equity | 1,626 | 1,738 | 1,857 | 1,982 | 2,114 | 2,254 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 238 | 248 | 259 | 270 | 281 | |
| Investing (capex) | (126) | (147) | (170) | (194) | (220) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 112 | 101 | 89 | 76 | 62 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 112 | 101 | 89 | 76 | 62 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 3% | 6.2% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹44 | (76.5)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.