Models
ELECTROSTEEL CASTINGS LTDELECTCASTIndustrial Products
₹25per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹25implied FY26 P/E 12.7× · EV/EBITDA 8.6×
Against CMP ₹77.90−68.1%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3167%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹16₹43
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹60₹104
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 921 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,836 |
| Enterprise value | 2,756 |
| less net debt | (1,218) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,538 |
| ÷ 61.82 crore shares | ₹25 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 26 | 29 | 33 | 37 | 43 |
| 10.50% | 23 | 26 | 28 | 32 | 36 |
| 11.00% | 20 | 22 | 25 | 28 | 31 |
| 11.50% | 18 | 20 | 22 | 24 | 27 |
| 12.00% | 16 | 18 | 19 | 21 | 24 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹77.90; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 19 · 25 · 32 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.74 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.64 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 7,276 | 7,478 | 7,320 | 5,918 | 5,622 | 5,341 | 5,074 | 4,820 | 4,579 |
| growth % | 37.8 | 2.8 | (2.1) | (19.2) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) |
| EBITDA | 738 | 1,178 | 1,036 | 321 | 304 | 288 | 274 | 260 | 247 |
| margin % | 10.1 | 15.8 | 14.1 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 |
| less depreciation | (121) | (125) | (142) | (173) | (163) | (155) | (147) | (140) | (133) |
| EBIT | 616 | 1,054 | 894 | 148 | 141 | 134 | 127 | 121 | 114 |
| less tax on EBIT | (39) | (37) | (35) | (33) | (32) | (30) | |||
| NOPAT | 109 | 104 | 99 | 94 | 89 | 84 | |||
| add depreciation | 121 | 125 | 142 | 173 | 163 | 155 | 147 | 140 | 133 |
| less capex | (188) | (244) | (278) | (130) | (124) | (135) | (144) | (152) | (159) |
| less working-capital build | — | 146 | 139 | 132 | 125 | 119 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 265 | 561 | 203 | — | 289 | 257 | 228 | 201 | 177 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 274 | 220 | 176 | 140 | 111 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 1,513, dividends at 53.6% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 148 | 141 | 134 | 127 | 121 | 114 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (121) | (121) | (121) | (121) | (121) | |
| Profit before tax | 20 | 13 | 6 | (1) | (7) | |
| Profit after tax | 161 | 14 | 9 | 4 | (0) | (5) |
| Dividends | (87) | (8) | (5) | (2) | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 294 | 486 | 650 | 786 | 898 | 986 |
| Working capital | 2,917 | 2,771 | 2,632 | 2,501 | 2,376 | 2,257 |
| Net block and other assets | 6,250 | 6,211 | 6,191 | 6,187 | 6,200 | 6,227 |
| Debt | 1,513 | 1,513 | 1,513 | 1,513 | 1,513 | 1,513 |
| Equity | 5,924 | 5,931 | 5,935 | 5,937 | 5,937 | 5,932 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | 0 | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 323 | 303 | 283 | 264 | 247 | |
| Investing (capex) | (124) | (135) | (144) | (152) | (159) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (8) | (5) | (2) | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 192 | 163 | 137 | 112 | 87 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 200 | 168 | 139 | 112 | 87 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -5% | 5.4% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹25 | (68.1)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.