Models
ELGI EQUIPMENTS LTDELGIEQUIPIndustrial Products
₹163per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹163implied FY26 P/E 11.5× · EV/EBITDA 9.6×
Against CMP ₹618.00−73.6%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3179%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹123₹243
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹408₹653
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,121 |
| PV of terminal value | 4,284 |
| Enterprise value | 5,405 |
| less net debt | (241) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 5,164 |
| ÷ 31.70 crore shares | ₹163 |
79% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 169 | 182 | 198 | 218 | 243 |
| 10.50% | 155 | 166 | 179 | 195 | 214 |
| 11.00% | 142 | 152 | 163 | 176 | 191 |
| 11.50% | 132 | 140 | 149 | 160 | 173 |
| 12.00% | 123 | 130 | 138 | 147 | 157 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹618.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 126 · 161 · 203 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.82 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.53 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.06 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3,041 | 3,218 | 3,510 | 3,951 | 4,445 | 5,000 | 5,625 | 6,328 | 7,119 |
| growth % | 20.4 | 5.8 | 9.1 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 12.5 |
| EBITDA | 538 | 486 | 525 | 564 | 636 | 715 | 804 | 905 | 1,018 |
| margin % | 17.7 | 15.1 | 15.0 | 14.3 | 14.3 | 14.3 | 14.3 | 14.3 | 14.3 |
| less depreciation | (78) | (77) | (76) | (86) | (98) | (110) | (124) | (139) | (157) |
| EBIT | 460 | 409 | 449 | 478 | 538 | 605 | 681 | 766 | 861 |
| less tax on EBIT | (123) | (139) | (156) | (176) | (198) | (222) | |||
| NOPAT | 355 | 399 | 449 | 505 | 568 | 639 | |||
| add depreciation | 78 | 77 | 76 | 86 | 98 | 110 | 124 | 139 | 157 |
| less capex | (69) | (49) | (95) | (154) | (173) | (179) | (184) | (187) | (188) |
| less working-capital build | — | (122) | (137) | (154) | (174) | (195) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 97 | 239 | 296 | — | 202 | 242 | 290 | 347 | 412 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 191 | 207 | 224 | 241 | 258 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 405, dividends at 16.1% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 478 | 538 | 605 | 681 | 766 | 861 |
| Interest at 5.7% on debt | (23) | (23) | (23) | (23) | (23) | |
| Profit before tax | 515 | 582 | 658 | 743 | 838 | |
| Profit after tax | 430 | 382 | 432 | 488 | 551 | 622 |
| Dividends | (69) | (61) | (70) | (79) | (89) | (100) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 164 | 286 | 442 | 637 | 878 | 1,173 |
| Working capital | 975 | 1,097 | 1,234 | 1,389 | 1,562 | 1,758 |
| Net block and other assets | 2,407 | 2,482 | 2,552 | 2,612 | 2,660 | 2,691 |
| Debt | 405 | 405 | 405 | 405 | 405 | 405 |
| Equity | 2,232 | 2,552 | 2,915 | 3,324 | 3,786 | 4,308 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 358 | 405 | 457 | 517 | 583 | |
| Investing (capex) | (173) | (179) | (184) | (187) | (188) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (61) | (70) | (79) | (89) | (100) | |
| Net change in cash | 123 | 156 | 195 | 241 | 295 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 184 | 225 | 273 | 330 | 395 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 12.5% | 14.3% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹163 | (73.6)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.