Models
ELITECON INTERNATIONAL LELITECONCigarettes & Tobacco Products
₹8per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹8implied FY25 P/E 1.7× · EV/EBITDA 17.5×
Against CMP ₹8.19−7.3%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies10.7%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3076%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹6₹11
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹7₹46
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY26–FY30 free cash flow | 287 |
| PV of terminal value | 924 |
| Enterprise value | 1,211 |
| less net debt | 2 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,213 |
| ÷ 159.85 crore shares | ₹8 |
76% of the value sits after FY30. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 8 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
| 10.50% | 7 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
| 11.00% | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 9 |
| 11.50% | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 |
| 12.00% | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹8.19; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 6 · 8 · 9 |
| Draws below the CMP | 72% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.68 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.62 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.30 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 549 | 593 | 640 | 691 | 747 | 806 |
| growth % | — | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| EBITDA | 69 | 75 | 81 | 87 | 94 | 102 |
| margin % | 12.6 | 12.6 | 12.6 | 12.6 | 12.6 | 12.6 |
| less depreciation | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) |
| EBIT | 67 | 73 | 79 | 85 | 92 | 99 |
| less tax on EBIT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| NOPAT | 67 | 73 | 79 | 85 | 92 | 99 |
| add depreciation | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| less capex | (5) | (5) | (5) | (4) | (4) | (3) |
| less working-capital build | — | (7) | (8) | (8) | (9) | (10) |
| Free cash flow to firm | — | 62 | 68 | 74 | 81 | 89 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |
| Present value | 59 | 58 | 57 | 56 | 56 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 67 | 73 | 79 | 85 | 92 | 99 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | |
| Profit before tax | 73 | 79 | 85 | 92 | 99 | |
| Profit after tax | 70 | 73 | 79 | 85 | 92 | 99 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 3 | 65 | 133 | 207 | 289 | 378 |
| Working capital | 90 | 97 | 105 | 113 | 122 | 132 |
| Net block and other assets | 158 | 162 | 165 | 167 | 169 | 169 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 160 | 233 | 312 | 397 | 489 | 588 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 68 | 73 | 79 | 85 | 92 | |
| Investing (capex) | (5) | (5) | (4) | (4) | (3) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 62 | 68 | 74 | 81 | 89 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 62 | 68 | 74 | 81 | 89 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY25 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 8% | 12.6% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹8 | (7.3)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.