Models
ELLENBARRIE INDUS GASES LELLENChemicals & Petrochemicals
₹55per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹55implied FY26 P/E 6.5× · EV/EBITDA 8.2×
Against CMP ₹380.00−85.5%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY31102%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹35₹96
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹175₹560
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | (20) |
| PV of terminal value | 978 |
| Enterprise value | 958 |
| less net debt | (179) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 779 |
| ÷ 14.09 crore shares | ₹55 |
102% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 58 | 65 | 73 | 83 | 96 |
| 10.50% | 51 | 57 | 63 | 72 | 82 |
| 11.00% | 45 | 50 | 55 | 62 | 70 |
| 11.50% | 40 | 44 | 48 | 54 | 61 |
| 12.00% | 35 | 39 | 43 | 47 | 53 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹380.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 39 · 54 · 74 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.71 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.60 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.27 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 342 | 369 | 398 | 430 | 465 | 502 |
| growth % | — | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| EBITDA | 116 | 125 | 135 | 146 | 158 | 171 |
| margin % | 34.0 | 34.0 | 34.0 | 34.0 | 34.0 | 34.0 |
| less depreciation | (21) | (23) | (25) | (27) | (29) | (32) |
| EBIT | 95 | 102 | 110 | 119 | 129 | 139 |
| less tax on EBIT | (22) | (23) | (25) | (27) | (29) | (32) |
| NOPAT | 73 | 79 | 85 | 92 | 99 | 107 |
| add depreciation | 21 | 23 | 25 | 27 | 29 | 32 |
| less capex | (158) | (171) | (146) | (116) | (80) | (38) |
| less working-capital build | — | (5) | (5) | (6) | (6) | (7) |
| Free cash flow to firm | — | (74) | (41) | (3) | 42 | 94 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |
| Present value | (70) | (35) | (2) | 29 | 59 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 180, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 95 | 102 | 110 | 119 | 129 | 139 |
| Interest at 5.3% on debt | (10) | (10) | (10) | (10) | (10) | |
| Profit before tax | 93 | 101 | 110 | 119 | 129 | |
| Profit after tax | 104 | 72 | 78 | 85 | 92 | 100 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 1 | (80) | (129) | (139) | (104) | (18) |
| Working capital | 63 | 68 | 73 | 79 | 85 | 92 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,235 | 1,383 | 1,504 | 1,593 | 1,644 | 1,650 |
| Debt | 180 | 180 | 180 | 180 | 180 | 180 |
| Equity | 977 | 1,049 | 1,126 | 1,211 | 1,303 | 1,403 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 90 | 98 | 106 | 115 | 125 | |
| Investing (capex) | (171) | (146) | (116) | (80) | (38) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (81) | (49) | (10) | 35 | 87 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (81) | (49) | (10) | 35 | 87 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 8% | 34% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹55 | (85.5)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.