Models
ELPRO INTERNATIONAL LTDELPROINTLRealty
₹245per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹245implied FY26 P/E 15.3× · EV/EBITDA 33.8×
Against CMP ₹173.99+40.6%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies23.3%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3187%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹164₹406
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹86₹181
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 664 |
| PV of terminal value | 4,630 |
| Enterprise value | 5,295 |
| less net debt | (1,149) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 4,146 |
| ÷ 16.95 crore shares | ₹245 |
87% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 256 | 283 | 316 | 356 | 406 |
| 10.50% | 228 | 250 | 277 | 309 | 348 |
| 11.00% | 203 | 222 | 245 | 271 | 302 |
| 11.50% | 182 | 199 | 217 | 239 | 265 |
| 12.00% | 164 | 178 | 194 | 212 | 234 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹173.99; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 154 · 242 · 361 |
| Draws below the CMP | 17% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.83 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.40 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.33 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 123 | 257 | 390 | 528 | 687 | 893 | 1,160 | 1,508 | 1,961 |
| growth % | 70.0 | 108.4 | 52.1 | 35.3 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | 45 | 107 | 81 | 157 | 204 | 265 | 345 | 448 | 582 |
| margin % | 36.8 | 41.8 | 20.7 | 29.7 | 29.7 | 29.7 | 29.7 | 29.7 | 29.7 |
| less depreciation | (5) | (5) | (10) | (15) | (20) | (26) | (34) | (44) | (57) |
| EBIT | 40 | 102 | 71 | 142 | 184 | 239 | 311 | 404 | 526 |
| less tax on EBIT | (18) | (24) | (31) | (40) | (53) | (68) | |||
| NOPAT | 123 | 160 | 208 | 271 | 352 | 457 | |||
| add depreciation | 5 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 20 | 26 | 34 | 44 | 57 |
| less capex | (227) | (24) | (177) | (122) | (158) | (162) | (154) | (126) | (68) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (363) | 116 | 42 | — | 22 | 72 | 151 | 269 | 446 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 21 | 62 | 116 | 187 | 279 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 1,189, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 142 | 184 | 239 | 311 | 404 | 526 |
| Interest at 9.8% on debt | (117) | (117) | (117) | (117) | (117) | |
| Profit before tax | 67 | 123 | 194 | 288 | 409 | |
| Profit after tax | 87 | 59 | 107 | 169 | 250 | 356 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 41 | (39) | (68) | (19) | 149 | 494 |
| Working capital | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) |
| Net block and other assets | 3,584 | 3,722 | 3,857 | 3,977 | 4,060 | 4,071 |
| Debt | 1,189 | 1,189 | 1,189 | 1,189 | 1,189 | 1,189 |
| Equity | 2,030 | 2,089 | 2,196 | 2,365 | 2,615 | 2,971 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 79 | 133 | 203 | 294 | 413 | |
| Investing (capex) | (158) | (162) | (154) | (126) | (68) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (79) | (29) | 49 | 168 | 344 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (79) | (29) | 49 | 168 | 344 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 29.7% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹245 | 40.6% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.