Models
EMAMI PAPER MILLS LIMITEDEMAMIPAPPaper Forest & Jute Products
₹70per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹70implied FY26 P/E 4.5× · EV/EBITDA 6.4×
Against CMP ₹117.75−40.8%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3168%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹28₹152
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹55₹134
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 398 |
| PV of terminal value | 841 |
| Enterprise value | 1,238 |
| less net debt | (817) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 421 |
| ÷ 6.05 crore shares | ₹70 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 76 | 90 | 106 | 127 | 152 |
| 10.50% | 61 | 73 | 86 | 103 | 123 |
| 11.00% | 49 | 58 | 70 | 83 | 99 |
| 11.50% | 38 | 46 | 56 | 67 | 80 |
| 12.00% | 28 | 35 | 43 | 53 | 64 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹117.75; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 36 · 70 · 109 |
| Draws below the CMP | 94% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.77 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.61 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,308 | 1,994 | 1,928 | 1,907 | 1,888 | 1,869 | 1,851 | 1,832 | 1,814 |
| growth % | 17.9 | (13.6) | (3.3) | (1.1) | (1.0) | (1.0) | (1.0) | (1.0) | (1.0) |
| EBITDA | 222 | 236 | 142 | 195 | 193 | 191 | 189 | 187 | 185 |
| margin % | 9.6 | 11.9 | 7.4 | 10.2 | 10.2 | 10.2 | 10.2 | 10.2 | 10.2 |
| less depreciation | (68) | (60) | (52) | (55) | (55) | (54) | (54) | (53) | (53) |
| EBIT | 154 | 176 | 90 | 140 | 138 | 136 | 135 | 134 | 132 |
| less tax on EBIT | (48) | (47) | (47) | (46) | (46) | (45) | |||
| NOPAT | 92 | 91 | 90 | 89 | 88 | 87 | |||
| add depreciation | 68 | 60 | 52 | 55 | 55 | 54 | 54 | 53 | 53 |
| less capex | (26) | (20) | (21) | (30) | (30) | (39) | (47) | (55) | (63) |
| less working-capital build | — | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 6 | 332 | 23 | — | 120 | 110 | 100 | 90 | 81 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 114 | 94 | 77 | 63 | 51 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 817, dividends at 23.8% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 140 | 138 | 136 | 135 | 134 | 132 |
| Interest at 8.6% on debt | (70) | (70) | (70) | (70) | (70) | |
| Profit before tax | 68 | 66 | 65 | 63 | 62 | |
| Profit after tax | 61 | 44 | 43 | 43 | 42 | 41 |
| Dividends | (15) | (11) | (10) | (10) | (10) | (10) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 0 | 63 | 116 | 160 | 194 | 219 |
| Working capital | 465 | 460 | 456 | 451 | 447 | 442 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,357 | 1,333 | 1,317 | 1,311 | 1,313 | 1,323 |
| Debt | 817 | 817 | 817 | 817 | 817 | 817 |
| Equity | 575 | 609 | 642 | 675 | 706 | 738 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 104 | 102 | 101 | 99 | 98 | |
| Investing (capex) | (30) | (39) | (47) | (55) | (63) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (11) | (10) | (10) | (10) | (10) | |
| Net change in cash | 63 | 53 | 44 | 34 | 25 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 74 | 64 | 54 | 44 | 35 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -1% | 10.2% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹70 | (40.8)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.