Models
EMBASSY DEVELOPMENTS LTDEMBDLRealty
₹-15per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹(15)implied FY26 P/E —× · EV/EBITDA (5.0)×
Against CMP ₹55.38−126.6%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3170%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹(18)₹(8)
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹39₹106
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 728 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,661 |
| Enterprise value | 2,390 |
| less net debt | (4,439) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | (2,049) |
| ÷ 139.00 crore shares | ₹(15) |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | (14) | (13) | (12) | (10) | (8) |
| 10.50% | (15) | (14) | (13) | (12) | (10) |
| 11.00% | (17) | (16) | (15) | (14) | (12) |
| 11.50% | (17) | (17) | (16) | (15) | (14) |
| 12.00% | (18) | (18) | (17) | (16) | (15) |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹55.38; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (16) · (15) · (12) |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −1.00 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.01 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.01 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 587 | 414 | 2,180 | 1,732 | 1,645 | 1,563 | 1,485 | 1,411 | 1,340 |
| growth % | (59.4) | (29.5) | 426.8 | (20.6) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) |
| EBITDA | (585) | (1,057) | 136 | (473) | (449) | (427) | (405) | (385) | (366) |
| margin % | (99.6) | (255.5) | 6.2 | (27.3) | (27.3) | (27.3) | (27.3) | (27.3) | (27.3) |
| less depreciation | (12) | (11) | (15) | (48) | (46) | (44) | (42) | (39) | (38) |
| EBIT | (597) | (1,068) | 121 | (521) | (495) | (470) | (447) | (425) | (403) |
| less tax on EBIT | 131 | 125 | 118 | 112 | 107 | 102 | |||
| NOPAT | (390) | (371) | (352) | (334) | (318) | (302) | |||
| add depreciation | 12 | 11 | 15 | 48 | 46 | 44 | 42 | 39 | 38 |
| less capex | (1) | (2) | 0 | (44) | (41) | (42) | (44) | (44) | (45) |
| less working-capital build | — | 576 | 547 | 520 | 494 | 469 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (344) | (100) | 1,461 | — | 211 | 197 | 184 | 171 | 160 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 200 | 168 | 141 | 119 | 100 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 5,218, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | (521) | (495) | (470) | (447) | (425) | (403) |
| Interest at 11.3% on debt | (590) | (590) | (590) | (590) | (590) | |
| Profit before tax | (1,085) | (1,060) | (1,037) | (1,014) | (993) | |
| Profit after tax | (873) | (812) | (793) | (776) | (759) | (743) |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 779 | 548 | 304 | 46 | (223) | (505) |
| Working capital | 11,524 | 10,948 | 10,400 | 9,880 | 9,386 | 8,917 |
| Net block and other assets | 9,235 | 9,230 | 9,229 | 9,230 | 9,235 | 9,243 |
| Debt | 5,218 | 5,218 | 5,218 | 5,218 | 5,218 | 5,218 |
| Equity | 9,964 | 9,152 | 8,359 | 7,583 | 6,824 | 6,081 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | (190) | (202) | (214) | (225) | (236) | |
| Investing (capex) | (41) | (42) | (44) | (44) | (45) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (231) | (245) | (258) | (270) | (281) | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (231) | (245) | (258) | (270) | (281) | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -5% | -27.3% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹(15) | (126.6)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.