Models
EMCURE PHARMACEUTICALS LEMCUREPharmaceuticals & Biotechnology
₹724per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹724implied FY26 P/E 13.6× · EV/EBITDA 8.1×
Against CMP ₹1,975.10−63.3%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3176%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹548₹1,077
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹1,260₹2,048
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 3,499 |
| PV of terminal value | 11,310 |
| Enterprise value | 14,808 |
| less net debt | (1,067) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 13,741 |
| ÷ 18.97 crore shares | ₹724 |
76% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 750 | 810 | 881 | 968 | 1,077 |
| 10.50% | 688 | 737 | 796 | 866 | 951 |
| 11.00% | 634 | 676 | 724 | 782 | 851 |
| 11.50% | 588 | 623 | 664 | 712 | 768 |
| 12.00% | 548 | 578 | 613 | 653 | 700 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,975.10; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 496 · 715 · 946 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.89 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.39 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.10 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 7,896 | 9,204 | 10,722 | 12,491 | 14,552 | 16,953 | 19,751 |
| growth % | — | 16.6 | 16.5 | 16.5 | 16.5 | 16.5 | 16.5 |
| EBITDA | 1,464 | 1,833 | 2,134 | 2,486 | 2,896 | 3,374 | 3,930 |
| margin % | 18.5 | 19.9 | 19.9 | 19.9 | 19.9 | 19.9 | 19.9 |
| less depreciation | (384) | (415) | (482) | (562) | (655) | (763) | (889) |
| EBIT | 1,080 | 1,418 | 1,651 | 1,924 | 2,241 | 2,611 | 3,042 |
| less tax on EBIT | (381) | (444) | (517) | (603) | (702) | (818) | |
| NOPAT | 1,037 | 1,207 | 1,406 | 1,638 | 1,909 | 2,223 | |
| add depreciation | 384 | 415 | 482 | 562 | 655 | 763 | 889 |
| less capex | (222) | (361) | (418) | (534) | (677) | (852) | (1,067) |
| less working-capital build | — | (519) | (605) | (705) | (821) | (957) | |
| Free cash flow to firm | 630 | — | 752 | 829 | 912 | 998 | 1,089 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||
| Present value | 714 | 709 | 702 | 693 | 681 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 1,204, dividends at 6.2% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 1,418 | 1,651 | 1,924 | 2,241 | 2,611 | 3,042 |
| Interest at 14.8% on debt | (178) | (178) | (178) | (178) | (178) | |
| Profit before tax | 1,473 | 1,745 | 2,063 | 2,433 | 2,863 | |
| Profit after tax | 924 | 1,077 | 1,276 | 1,508 | 1,778 | 2,093 |
| Dividends | (57) | (67) | (79) | (93) | (110) | (130) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 137 | 692 | 1,312 | 1,999 | 2,757 | 3,586 |
| Working capital | 3,152 | 3,671 | 4,276 | 4,981 | 5,802 | 6,759 |
| Net block and other assets | 6,324 | 6,260 | 6,231 | 6,253 | 6,342 | 6,520 |
| Debt | 1,204 | 1,204 | 1,204 | 1,204 | 1,204 | 1,204 |
| Equity | 4,977 | 5,987 | 7,183 | 8,598 | 10,266 | 12,229 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 1,040 | 1,233 | 1,458 | 1,720 | 2,025 | |
| Investing (capex) | (418) | (534) | (677) | (852) | (1,067) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (67) | (79) | (93) | (110) | (130) | |
| Net change in cash | 555 | 620 | 688 | 758 | 829 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 622 | 699 | 781 | 868 | 959 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 16.5% | 19.9% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹724 | (63.3)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.