Models
EMS LIMITEDEMSLIMITEDOther Utilities
₹202per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹202implied FY26 P/E 16.5× · EV/EBITDA 9.0×
Against CMP ₹382.60−47.2%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3177%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹150₹305
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹256₹590
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 290 |
| PV of terminal value | 969 |
| Enterprise value | 1,259 |
| less net debt | (137) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,122 |
| ÷ 5.55 crore shares | ₹202 |
77% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 210 | 227 | 248 | 273 | 305 |
| 10.50% | 191 | 206 | 223 | 243 | 268 |
| 11.00% | 176 | 188 | 202 | 219 | 239 |
| 11.50% | 162 | 173 | 185 | 198 | 215 |
| 12.00% | 150 | 159 | 169 | 181 | 195 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹382.60; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 171 · 202 · 242 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.81 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.56 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 793 | 966 | 733 | 696 | 661 | 628 | 597 | 567 |
| growth % | — | 21.7 | (24.1) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) |
| EBITDA | 204 | 251 | 140 | 134 | 127 | 121 | 115 | 109 |
| margin % | 25.7 | 26.0 | 19.2 | 19.2 | 19.2 | 19.2 | 19.2 | 19.2 |
| less depreciation | (7) | (10) | (10) | (10) | (9) | (9) | (8) | (8) |
| EBIT | 197 | 242 | 130 | 124 | 118 | 112 | 106 | 101 |
| less tax on EBIT | (38) | (36) | (35) | (33) | (31) | (30) | ||
| NOPAT | 92 | 87 | 83 | 79 | 75 | 71 | ||
| add depreciation | 7 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 |
| less capex | (33) | (6) | (73) | (69) | (52) | (36) | (22) | (10) |
| less working-capital build | — | 29 | 28 | 26 | 25 | 24 | ||
| Free cash flow to firm | (149) | 27 | — | 57 | 68 | 78 | 86 | 93 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |||
| Present value | 54 | 58 | 60 | 60 | 58 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 154, dividends at 9.2% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 130 | 124 | 118 | 112 | 106 | 101 |
| Interest at 11% on debt | (17) | (17) | (17) | (17) | (17) | |
| Profit before tax | 107 | 101 | 95 | 89 | 84 | |
| Profit after tax | 91 | 76 | 71 | 67 | 63 | 59 |
| Dividends | (8) | (7) | (7) | (6) | (6) | (5) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 17 | 56 | 105 | 165 | 233 | 309 |
| Working capital | 580 | 551 | 524 | 498 | 473 | 449 |
| Net block and other assets | 733 | 792 | 835 | 862 | 876 | 878 |
| Debt | 154 | 154 | 154 | 154 | 154 | 154 |
| Equity | 1,058 | 1,127 | 1,191 | 1,252 | 1,309 | 1,363 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 114 | 108 | 102 | 96 | 91 | |
| Investing (capex) | (69) | (52) | (36) | (22) | (10) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (7) | (7) | (6) | (6) | (5) | |
| Net change in cash | 38 | 50 | 59 | 68 | 76 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 45 | 56 | 66 | 74 | 81 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -5% | 19.2% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹202 | (47.2)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.