₹158per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹158implied FY26 P/E 15.3× · EV/EBITDA 11.7×
Against CMP ₹207.77−24.1%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies13.2%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3185%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹113₹247
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹135₹276
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 479 |
| PV of terminal value | 2,659 |
| Enterprise value | 3,137 |
| less net debt | (370) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 2,767 |
| ÷ 17.55 crore shares | ₹158 |
85% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 164 | 179 | 197 | 219 | 247 |
| 10.50% | 148 | 161 | 176 | 193 | 215 |
| 11.00% | 135 | 145 | 158 | 172 | 190 |
| 11.50% | 123 | 132 | 143 | 155 | 169 |
| 12.00% | 113 | 121 | 130 | 140 | 152 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹207.77; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 124 · 157 · 197 |
| Draws below the CMP | 95% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.65 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.60 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.39 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,066 | 1,146 | 1,232 | 1,324 | 1,423 | 1,530 | 1,645 |
| growth % | — | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 |
| EBITDA | 268 | 268 | 288 | 310 | 333 | 358 | 385 |
| margin % | 25.1 | 23.4 | 23.4 | 23.4 | 23.4 | 23.4 | 23.4 |
| less depreciation | (9) | (25) | (27) | (29) | (31) | (34) | (36) |
| EBIT | 258 | 243 | 261 | 281 | 302 | 324 | 349 |
| less tax on EBIT | (60) | (64) | (69) | (74) | (79) | (85) | |
| NOPAT | 184 | 197 | 212 | 228 | 245 | 263 | |
| add depreciation | 9 | 25 | 27 | 29 | 31 | 34 | 36 |
| less capex | (47) | (182) | (196) | (167) | (132) | (91) | (43) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Free cash flow to firm | (93) | — | 28 | 74 | 127 | 187 | 256 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||
| Present value | 27 | 64 | 98 | 130 | 160 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 422, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 243 | 261 | 281 | 302 | 324 | 349 |
| Interest at 11% on debt | (46) | (46) | (46) | (46) | (46) | |
| Profit before tax | 215 | 234 | 255 | 278 | 302 | |
| Profit after tax | 183 | 162 | 177 | 193 | 210 | 228 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 52 | 45 | 85 | 177 | 329 | 550 |
| Working capital | (42) | (42) | (42) | (42) | (42) | (42) |
| Net block and other assets | 2,033 | 2,201 | 2,339 | 2,439 | 2,497 | 2,504 |
| Debt | 422 | 422 | 422 | 422 | 422 | 422 |
| Equity | 1,237 | 1,399 | 1,576 | 1,769 | 1,979 | 2,207 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 189 | 206 | 224 | 243 | 264 | |
| Investing (capex) | (196) | (167) | (132) | (91) | (43) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (7) | 39 | 92 | 152 | 221 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (7) | 39 | 92 | 152 | 221 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 7.5% | 23.4% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹158 | (24.1)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.