Models
EPIGRAL LIMITEDEPIGRALChemicals & Petrochemicals
₹910per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹910implied FY26 P/E 14.5× · EV/EBITDA 7.9×
Against CMP ₹1,137.00−20.0%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies5.6%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3179%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹668₹1,394
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹807₹1,809
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 952 |
| PV of terminal value | 3,533 |
| Enterprise value | 4,484 |
| less net debt | (558) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 3,926 |
| ÷ 4.31 crore shares | ₹910 |
79% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 945 | 1,027 | 1,125 | 1,244 | 1,394 |
| 10.50% | 860 | 927 | 1,008 | 1,104 | 1,221 |
| 11.00% | 786 | 844 | 910 | 989 | 1,083 |
| 11.50% | 723 | 772 | 828 | 893 | 970 |
| 12.00% | 668 | 709 | 757 | 812 | 877 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,137.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 708 · 911 · 1,146 |
| Draws below the CMP | 89% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.78 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.60 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.02 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,188 | 1,929 | 2,550 | 2,527 | 2,502 | 2,477 | 2,452 | 2,428 | 2,403 |
| growth % | 41.1 | (11.8) | 32.2 | (0.9) | (1.0) | (1.0) | (1.0) | (1.0) | (1.0) |
| EBITDA | 689 | 481 | 711 | 567 | 560 | 555 | 549 | 544 | 538 |
| margin % | 31.5 | 24.9 | 27.9 | 22.4 | 22.4 | 22.4 | 22.4 | 22.4 | 22.4 |
| less depreciation | (109) | (124) | (133) | (168) | (168) | (166) | (164) | (163) | (161) |
| EBIT | 580 | 358 | 578 | 399 | 393 | 389 | 385 | 381 | 377 |
| less tax on EBIT | (10) | (10) | (10) | (10) | (10) | (10) | |||
| NOPAT | 388 | 383 | 379 | 375 | 371 | 368 | |||
| add depreciation | 109 | 124 | 133 | 168 | 168 | 166 | 164 | 163 | 161 |
| less capex | (416) | (398) | (195) | (394) | (390) | (340) | (290) | (241) | (193) |
| less working-capital build | — | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 210 | (1) | 246 | — | 165 | 210 | 254 | 298 | 340 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 157 | 180 | 196 | 207 | 213 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 563, dividends at 5.5% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 399 | 393 | 389 | 385 | 381 | 377 |
| Interest at 12.5% on debt | (70) | (70) | (70) | (70) | (70) | |
| Profit before tax | 322 | 318 | 315 | 311 | 307 | |
| Profit after tax | 332 | 314 | 310 | 306 | 303 | 299 |
| Dividends | (18) | (17) | (17) | (17) | (17) | (16) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 5 | 84 | 209 | 378 | 590 | 845 |
| Working capital | 505 | 500 | 495 | 490 | 486 | 481 |
| Net block and other assets | 2,995 | 3,218 | 3,391 | 3,517 | 3,595 | 3,627 |
| Debt | 563 | 563 | 563 | 563 | 563 | 563 |
| Equity | 2,221 | 2,518 | 2,811 | 3,101 | 3,387 | 3,669 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 487 | 481 | 476 | 470 | 465 | |
| Investing (capex) | (390) | (340) | (290) | (241) | (193) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (17) | (17) | (17) | (17) | (16) | |
| Net change in cash | 79 | 125 | 169 | 213 | 255 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 96 | 142 | 186 | 229 | 272 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -1% | 22.4% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹910 | (20.0)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.