Models
EPL LIMITEDEPLIndustrial Products
₹181per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹181implied FY26 P/E 11.9× · EV/EBITDA 6.7×
Against CMP ₹239.45−24.4%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3178%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹135₹272
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹176₹274
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,382 |
| PV of terminal value | 4,928 |
| Enterprise value | 6,310 |
| less net debt | (512) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 5,798 |
| ÷ 32.05 crore shares | ₹181 |
78% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 188 | 203 | 221 | 244 | 272 |
| 10.50% | 171 | 184 | 199 | 217 | 239 |
| 11.00% | 158 | 168 | 181 | 196 | 213 |
| 11.50% | 146 | 155 | 165 | 178 | 192 |
| 12.00% | 135 | 143 | 152 | 163 | 175 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹239.45; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 117 · 179 · 247 |
| Draws below the CMP | 88% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.92 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.35 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.06 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3,694 | 3,916 | 4,213 | 4,763 | 5,382 | 6,082 | 6,873 | 7,766 | 8,776 |
| growth % | 7.6 | 6.0 | 7.6 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 13.0 |
| EBITDA | 577 | 654 | 832 | 937 | 1,060 | 1,198 | 1,354 | 1,530 | 1,729 |
| margin % | 15.6 | 16.7 | 19.8 | 19.7 | 19.7 | 19.7 | 19.7 | 19.7 | 19.7 |
| less depreciation | (281) | (333) | (343) | (385) | (436) | (493) | (557) | (629) | (711) |
| EBIT | 296 | 321 | 490 | 552 | 624 | 706 | 797 | 901 | 1,018 |
| less tax on EBIT | (99) | (112) | (127) | (144) | (162) | (183) | |||
| NOPAT | 453 | 512 | 579 | 654 | 739 | 835 | |||
| add depreciation | 281 | 333 | 343 | 385 | 436 | 493 | 557 | 629 | 711 |
| less capex | (387) | (375) | (363) | (482) | (544) | (609) | (681) | (762) | (853) |
| less working-capital build | — | (134) | (151) | (171) | (193) | (218) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 215 | 212 | 432 | — | 271 | 312 | 359 | 413 | 475 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 257 | 266 | 276 | 286 | 297 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 709, dividends at 41.1% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 552 | 624 | 706 | 797 | 901 | 1,018 |
| Interest at 16.6% on debt | (118) | (118) | (118) | (118) | (118) | |
| Profit before tax | 507 | 588 | 680 | 783 | 900 | |
| Profit after tax | 389 | 415 | 482 | 557 | 642 | 738 |
| Dividends | (160) | (171) | (198) | (229) | (264) | (303) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 197 | 201 | 218 | 251 | 303 | 377 |
| Working capital | 1,030 | 1,163 | 1,314 | 1,485 | 1,678 | 1,896 |
| Net block and other assets | 3,673 | 3,781 | 3,896 | 4,021 | 4,154 | 4,296 |
| Debt | 709 | 709 | 709 | 709 | 709 | 709 |
| Equity | 2,866 | 3,111 | 3,395 | 3,723 | 4,101 | 4,536 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 718 | 824 | 943 | 1,078 | 1,231 | |
| Investing (capex) | (544) | (609) | (681) | (762) | (853) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (171) | (198) | (229) | (264) | (303) | |
| Net change in cash | 3 | 17 | 33 | 52 | 75 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 174 | 215 | 262 | 316 | 378 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 13% | 19.7% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹181 | (24.4)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.